Houston Office Leasing Down 29 Percent
Land Worth More Than the Building
Cracks in the Edifice
Impending Crisis
Lease Renewals
“More than 50% of the $2.9T in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points"
Who's Holding the Bag?
I discussed the answer in The Exceptionally Poor Timing of Small Bank vs Large Bank Cash Deployment
Here's the key picture.
Monthly average Commercial Real Estate percent allocation of bank assets
Ripe for an Accident
And small banks do not have the deposit cushion of larger banks.
It would not take much for small banks to blow through that minimal cushion.
What will the Fed and FDIC do if there is a CRE-inspired run on smaller banks?
Guarantee everything?
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