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Saturday, February 7, 2026

Rents fall again as Trump’s deportations rise

The best government data will be delayed again, thanks to yet another shutdown caused by the Democratic Party. But the best private data show rents fell again in January, the sixth month in a row, leaving them 1.4% lower than a year ago, the first decline in decades. President Donald Trump’s mass deportation policies are not the only reason for the decline, but they are a big contributing factor.

The Census Bureau declined to put a number on the decline of the foreign-born population in 2025, but the net international migration numbers released last week note that “the foreign-born population in the [Current Population Survey] declined from 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million in June 2025, a decline of 1.4 million.” Some communities bore the brunt of illegal immigration more than others, so the effect on rents from departing illegal immigrants will vary from place to place. It is noteworthy, however, that the Los Angeles Times, no fan of Trump and his administration, admitted last week that “communities targeted by immigration officers, such as Long Beach and East L.A., saw a jump in vacancies.”

Deportations are not the only reason rents are falling. Many homes are coming available because of permitting reforms that have made construction easier and less expensive. Austin, Texas, for example, has a booming economy with thousands of new jobs added every month. Aggressive housing construction has kept up, and Austin leads the league in falling rents, with prices 6.3% lower today than a year ago. 

San Francisco and New York have taken the opposite approach, using economically illiterate rent control policies to try to keep prices low. But rent control discourages investment and leaves some communities with not only fewer homes but also less desirable ones because rent-controlled landlords have no incentive to improve and maintain their properties. Another debacle is socialist Mayor Brandon Johnson’s attempt to build public housing in Chicago. He has spent billions of dollars to build “affordable” homes, but has only a few hundred units to show for it. Meanwhile, rents in the city are up 4.2% compared to this time last year.

Rents don’t rise or fall by chance. They are the product of policy. And falling rents do not materialize from the same policies that created the affordability crisis in the first place. Where demand pressures have eased because of mass deportations, and supply has been allowed to grow, prices are finally moving in the right direction, toward affordability. 

Enforcing immigration law and allowing more homes to be built are doing more for renters than slogans and rent control ever did. If lawmakers are serious about lasting affordability, they should stick with policies that expand housing and reduce excess demand, not stand firm on regulations that have already failed in the most expensive cities. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/4445430/rents-fall-again-trump-deportations-rise/

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/costar-in-the-crosshairs-of-famed-activist-dan-loeb-ce7e5bdddf81f62d

Friday, February 6, 2026

Homebuilders Tumble On Report White House May Launch Antitrust Probe Into House Affordability

 Homebuilder stocks are tumbling after Bloomberg reported that Trump administration officials are exploring opening an antitrust investigation into US homebuilders as the White House focuses on tackling the country’s housing affordability crisis.

The Department of Justice could open the probe in the coming weeks Bloomberg reported, quoting people familiar with the discussions. It adds that so far no decision has been made and the administration may abandon the effort without launching an investigation.

One potential focus is on how information is shared through an industry trade group called Leading Builders of America, according to the people. Officials have grown concerned that the trade group - whose members include Lennar and DR Horton - could be used to restrict housing supply or coordinate pricing.

The administration’s interest in homebuilders comes during a period where the cost of buying a home is at its most expensive in decades, with the Covid-era housing boom and subsequent interest rate hikes weighing heavily on buyers. It’s also a precarious time for the builders themselves, with the inventory of unsold homes hovering at high levels.

President Donald Trump put the industry on alert in October, when he used a social media post to compare big homebuilders to OPEC, a cartel which control the oil market.

“It wasn’t right for them to do that but, in a different form, is being done again — This time by the Big Homebuilders of our Nation,” Trump wrote. “They’re my friends, and they’re very important to the SUCCESS of our Country, but now, they can get Financing, and they have to start building Homes.”

Builders have been seeking ways to work with the White House to improve housing affordability. One option being discussed is a massive program — dubbed “Trump Homes” — that would seek to add as many as 1 million units of new supply, Bloomberg previously reported.

Ironically, just a few days ago, we reported that the White House is working with some of the the same homebuilders (Lennar and Taylor Morrison) which Trump is now supposedly going after criminally, as the president is working on a massive rent-to-own program to build up to 1 million "Trump Homes" in a boost to affordability. As part of the program, and which would sell entry-level homes to Americans as part of a pathway-to-ownership program funded by private investors. The drawback of this program, we said, is that such a program would be complicated to implement, and may not gain enough support to move forward as it would require substantial capital commitment from the homebuilders. 

Well, what better way to convince homebuilders it's in their best interest to participate in the program than to threaten them with criminal charges on something totally separate...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/homebuilders-tumble-report-white-house-may-launch-antitrust-probe-house-affordability

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Pulte: GSE stock move odds 'strong,' but 'we don't have to'

 A public stock offering for the government-sponsored enterprises remains on the table this year, but it is not the only path under serious consideration, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte .  

Possible new buyer for Chrysler Building — despite steep ground lease and shabby conditions

The Chrysler Building’s former owner is circling the orphaned tower.

The famed Midtown edifice has been without an owner since last spring, with high costs and overdue upkeep looming large over any potential deal.

Tishman Speyer is now the reported front-runner in “advanced talks” to renew its former ownership there, Crain’s reported — but the Art Deco gem’s longtime ground lease holder might need to make some concessions.

The Chrysler Building has long been known as one of New York’s most famous buildings.Brian Zak/NY Post
The Chrysler Building also trails behind other iconic NYC towers in renovations and tenants.Christopher Sadowski

Developed in 1930, the Chrysler Building rises 77 stories above Midtown, and offers tenants direct access to Grand Central.

Tishman Speyer took up ownership of the iconic office tower in 1997 for $220 million, and undertook its most recent renovation back in 2000. The company sold off its stake piece-by-piece over the years, including on 2008 deal that valued the building at $800 million.

By 2019, however, Tishman Speyer’s ownership was handed over to RFR and Signa Holding in a final transaction that valued the iconic Chrysler Building at just $150 million. Its sky-high ground lease was largely to blame, and continued to be a thorn in the side of negotiations.

Tishman Speyer’s return to the Chrysler Building’s hallowed halls reportedly depends upon negotiating the rent charged by Cooper Union, the East Village college and nonprofit owner of the ground lease for more than a century.

The owner-less tower has remained a question mark on New York City skyline for the better part of a year.Christopher Sadowski
Tourists visit the Art Deco lobby.Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The building’s annual ground rent quadrupled in 2018 from $7.75 million to $32.5 million. It’s set to increase again in 2028 to $41 million, according to the college’s recent financial statement.

The eyes of the city’s commercial real estate world have remained trained on the Chrysler Building since early last year, after a judge allowed Cooper Union to evict RFR. The former owners were reportedly in default of $21 million in ground rent, and had previously argued in court that Cooper Union’s rate didn’t reflect the harsh realities of the market, or the shabby state of the building.

Other office real estate powerhouses, including Savanna and SL Green, have previously expressed interest in the tower.

Savills is handling the current back-and-forth between Cooper Union and Tishman Speyer, Crain’s reported. It’s possible the firm will demand Cooper Union lower the ground rent from the $41 million they had in mind, given the historic tower’s costly need for repairs, upgrades and new tenants.

The Chrysler Building trails behind other historic towers in renovations and office leases. CoStar recently set the Chrysler Building’s vacancy rate at 14%, and current tenants have complained of elevator outages, dirty water and mice problems.

https://nypost.com/2026/02/03/real-estate/there-may-be-a-new-buyer-for-the-chrysler-building/

Major homebuilders considering providing 1 million ‘Trump Homes’ for first-time buyers

 Several major homebuilders are weighing plans to band together to provide up to 1 million new entry-level houses for first-time buyers, branded as “Trump Homes,” according to a new report.

Lennar and Taylor Morrison are among the builders involved in the proposal, which would be funded by private investors, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the matter.

The homes would be intended to provide a pathway to homeownership for first-time buyers, with one version of the plan allowing for monthly rental payments over three years to be applied toward a down payment, in a version of rent-to-own, the sources said.

The plan is reportedly tentative, and it is unclear whether it will gain critical support among builders or backing from the Trump administration, according to the report.

Although the plan would be privately funded, to be profitable for the builders, it might require changes to the mortgage guarantees offered by federally controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Industry players pitched the plan to the Trump administration last year, but a White House official told Realtor.com® that it was premature to speculate on whether the plan would gain federal backing.

Exterior of a small American house with blue paint and a red door.
The ‘Trump Homes’ would be intended to provide a pathway to homeownership for first-time buyers.Iriana Shiyan – stock.adobe.com

“President Trump pledged to put an end to Joe Biden’s inflation and affordability crisis, and the administration is constantly exploring new policy actions to do just that,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

“Until policy announcements are officially made by the administration, however, any reporting about potential action is pure speculation.”

Lennar declined to comment. Taylor Morrison did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The reported plan for Trump Homes follows President Donald Trump’s call last fall for major homebuilders to dramatically boost construction to address the housing affordability crisis.

“I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” Trump wrote on Truth Social in October.

By late December, however, Trump appeared to change his tune, shifting his emphasis from bringing home prices down to keeping existing homeowners “wealthy and happy” through record-high home prices.

Trump repeated comments in support of high home valuations at his speech in Davos last month, and in a Cabinet meeting last week.

“I don’t want to knock those numbers down, because I want them to continue to have a big value for their house,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

“In other words, you create a lot of housing all of a sudden, and it drives the housing prices down.

“I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes. And they can be assured that’s what’s going to happen.”

The president’s shift in rhetoric raises questions about whether he would support a major new construction push from homebuilders.

Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner also questions whether a specific rent-to-own pathway would actually benefit many first-time homebuyers.

“The reason this hasn’t been done before at a large scale is that rent-to-own just isn’t a very favorable proposition to buyers,” he says.

Rent-to-own makes sense only in specific circumstances where the buyer is unable to get a mortgage now, but will be in the future, and is willing to commit to a specific home upfront, says Berner.

The rent-to-own buyer is also gambling that the home’s value won’t decline over the lease period.18

“It’s a small subset of the buyer population that experiences all these conditions,” he says.

“Building more homes is great for buyers, and a large-scale building boom will make homes more affordable. Just build them. Sell them or rent them out as builders normally would.”

https://nypost.com/2026/02/04/real-estate/major-homebuilders-considering-1-million-trump-homes-intended-for-first-time-buyers/

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

2026 the Beginning of the End for Homeowner Property Taxes? These State Lawmakers Think So

Property taxes may not end with a bang, but with a ballot measure and a billion-dollar whimper, as more states move away from reforming and instead aim to kill the tax that funds schools and many public services.

For decades, state lawmakers have tinkered around the edges of property tax reform, capping increases, compressing rates, and carving out relief for the most burdened of homeowners. But in 2026, at least five state legislatures are throwing that playbook out and moving to eliminate property taxes outright.

A mix of election-year pressure, swelling assessments, and an affordability crisis that’s squeezing long-tenured homeowners on fixed incomes is fueling a bold new wave of proposals. The plans vary in structure and ambition, but they share one thing: a belief that it’s time to fundamentally rethink how states fund public services and who’s footing the bill.

“Some of these states, namely Texas, have high property tax rates that are unpopular among voters, especially when the state runs a budget surplus nearly every year,” explains Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “The rest have all seen major increases in the taxable value of homes that are leading to higher property tax burdens.”

It’s that tension that’s now pushing states to test just how far voters and budgets are willing to go.

ND eyes oil and tax savings/credits

Of all the states experimenting with property-tax abolition, North Dakota has moved furthest toward a workable funding model.

Gov. Kelly Armstrong has outlined a plan that would commit roughly $483 million from the state’s general fund, plus future earnings from the oil-tax savings account, to offset property tax cuts and credits.

“This plan is aggressive, durable, and responsible,” he told lawmakers.

The proposal builds on the state’s primary-residence tax credit, delivering up to $1,550 in initial annual relief per household. That credit would increase every two years and gradually rely more on oil-tax earnings over time, while a 3% cap on annual growth in local property-tax budgets limits future increases.

When paired with an expanded property-tax credit for income-eligible seniors and people with disabilities, Armstrong argues the plan would “eliminate property taxes for an entire class of homeowners who need that relief the most, and it would put the bulk of primary residences on a path to zero within the next decade.”

That could make a significant difference for North Dakota homeowners under pressure. The state’s median home price is about $342,400, and the median property tax bill tops $3,000 a year, according to data from Realtor.com.

Georgia, Florida battle for ballot

But not every state has the luxury of oil and gas windfalls to fund bold tax experiments. And further south, Georgia and Florida are battling in the state legislature to approve  ballot initiatives that would end property taxes while scrambling to find alternative funding sources.

In Georgia, Republican legislators, including state Rep. Jon Burns, have backed a plan to eliminate most homeowner property taxes by 2032. The proposal would begin with a $1 billion state outlay to reduce current property tax burdens, followed by a dramatic raising of the exempt value of primary residences from $5,000 to $150,000 in 2031, and eliminating most property taxes the next year.

To replace the revenue, homeowners would be billed directly by their local government for services like garbage pickup, stormwater control, and fire protection, while any government or school improvements would need to be approved by voters.

But that swap comes with heavy baggage. Sales taxes are more volatile than property taxes and vary widely by region and economy, as shown by Florida.

While momentum has been building since early 2025 to eliminate property taxes on homesteads in the Sunshine State, replacing the lost revenue would require lawmakers to nearly double the statewide sales tax rate—from an average of 7.02% to a staggering 15.34%—just to offset the shortfall, not including the likely behavioral changes that would erode collections further, according to an analysis from the Tax Foundation’s Jared Walczak.

Still, state lawmakers floated more than seven different proposals last year aimed at softening or phasing out property taxes, mostly focused on primary residences.

But Gov. Ron DeSantis has pumped the brakes on this “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks strategy.” Rather than backing multiple bills, he’s urged lawmakers to consolidate their efforts behind one clearly defined ballot initiative that stands a real chance with voters, even teasing the possibility of a special session

Texas takes aim at school funding

Meanwhile, in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has made eliminating school property taxes a marquee issue heading into the 2026 election.

While lawmakers passed a series of tax relief measures in 2023 and 2024, including rate compression and homestead exemptions, Abbott has repeatedly said those changes don’t go far enough.

“Every single year, you, my constituents, keep saying our property taxes are too high,” Abbott told supporters at a campaign stop in late 2025. “We have to do more to lower them.”

Abbott has floated a long-term plan to use state surpluses to buy down school property taxes until they can be phased out entirely. But so far, a clear road map to replace the lost education funding remains elusive.

Still, with the governor’s backing and broad support from conservative voters, the idea has become a central talking point and a test of whether one of the largest and most complex school funding systems in the country can be reimagined.

Indiana joins the fray

Indiana is also joining in, throwing its weight behind full-scale property tax repeal. In a post on X, Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith positioned eliminating property taxes as his top priority for the 2026 legislative session.

He’s backing House Bill 1288, one of the most sweeping proposals in the country. The bill would abolish the assessment of tangible property after Dec. 31, 2026, and end property tax collection entirely beginning in 2027.

To offset the billions in lost revenue that currently fund local services, HB 1288 proposes broadening Indiana’s sales and use tax to include most services—everything from legal fees to haircuts—and redistributing that revenue through a local government sharing fund.

‘Zero’ slogans, budget realities

For every bold promise to eliminate property taxes, there’s an inescapable fiscal truth: Property taxes account for 70% of local revenue, 90% of school funding, and 25% of all state and local tax revenue in aggregate, according to Billy Hamilton, deputy chancellor emeritus, Texas A&M University.

Replacing that revenue requires a level of long-term financial engineering that few lawmakers have fully worked out.

Even in proposals that bank on redirection of general fund dollars or dividends from oil tax savings, the math remains stubborn: Property taxes are unusually stable and predictable. Sales and income tax revenues, by contrast, are more volatile, especially during economic downturns.

That’s why the most ambitious plans are also the most fraught. Eliminating property taxes means either slashing services, shifting the burden to more regressive taxes, or hoping for a level of economic growth and political consensus that rarely holds over time.

And that tension is already surfacing. As one-time relief packages give way to permanent elimination plans, voters will have to decide not just whether they want lower taxes, but whether they’re comfortable with what gets cut to make that happen.

Soon, we’ll spotlight the citizen-led movements pushing similar goals from the ground up. In many states, it’s not just lawmakers driving this shift but the voters themselves.

https://www.realtor.com/advice/finance/lawmakers-eliminating-property-taxes-2026/