Map Shows Homebuilders Pulling Back Nationwide "Given Limited Visibility To Demand"

 Even as homebuilders offer mortgage-rate buydowns, closing-cost incentives, and upgraded amenities to attract buyers on the sidelines, clouds of uncertainty continue to build over the housing market. New U.S. single-family permit activity fell again in January, highlighting yet more caution among builders ahead of the spring selling season as they respond to softer demand.

Goldman analysts, led by Susan Maklari, provided clients on Friday with a snapshot of homebuilders across America and a housing heat map suggesting continued sluggishness across the industry.

On a trailing 12-month basis, single-family permits fell 8% in January, versus 7% in the previous month, and were up 6% in December 2025.

Maklari said, "Ongoing moderation comes as builders look to limit unsold inventory given limited visibility to demand."

Some of the January weakness stemmed from severe winter weather and dangerously cold temperatures, which delayed permits and construction in parts of the eastern U.S., including major homebuilding markets such as Texas, Florida, and the Southeast. However, the snow and sub-zero temperatures are only one part of the slowdown story. 

The analyst added that builders are dealing with a challenging macroeconomic environment for buyers, noting that sales traffic improved earlier in the year but vanished in March, according to the latest industry checks, as consumers "react to the effects of the Middle East conflict."

At the same time, mortgage rates have jumped about 40 basis points over the last month, making monthly payments even less affordable as the housing market is stuck in the worst affordability crisis in a generation, a leftover gift from the Biden-Harris era.

The slowdown is most visible in some of the biggest new-home states:

Single-family permits for the 3-months ended January fell 11% YOY, compared to -9% in December, and -1% a year ago. That said, they were up 7% vs the comparable pre-pandemic period. Looking at the largest new home markets, the deceleration was led by Colorado (-21%), Texas (-20%), and Nevada (-19%) while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest outperformed. Nationally, we note 8 states were flat to up vs 11 in December. This comes as builders continue to align starts to demand while focusing on profitability and cash generation. As such, we expect permits will remain under pressure in the near-term.

At the metro level, the permit picture is deteriorating across the top 50 metro areas, with permits down 15% from one year ago, and some of the sharpest declines are in places such as Stockton, Richmond, and Cape Coral.

Permits in the top 50 MSAs declined 15% YOY for the 3 months ended December vs -13% in December and -4% in January 2025. On a YOY basis, Miami, FL (+33%), North Port, FL (+31%), and Portland, OR (+17%) showed the greatest gains while Stockton, CA (-47%), Richmond, VA (-39%), and Cape-Coral, FL (-36%) lagged. On a 2-year stack, growth was led by Colorado Springs, CO (+33%), Oklahoma City, OK (+30%), and Columbus, OH (+13%) while Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL (-52%), Myrtle Beach, SC-NC (-48%), and Denver, CO (-45%) had the largest losses.

Trailing 12 Month Single-Family Permits by State

Trailing 3 Month Single-Family Permits by State

Permits for Top 50 MSAs

A look at home prices shows the market is still rising nationally, but momentum has cooled.

Zillow's single-family home value index showed prices were modestly higher in February versus one year ago, in line with January and below the 3% annual gain seen a year ago. The data shows that home values remain up 55% since February 2019. 

Regionally, home price strength was concentrated in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, with Wisconsin, North Dakota, Illinois, and New York each posting 5% annual increases, while Connecticut, Michigan, and Iowa rose 4%. Sun Belt weakness persisted due to oversupply concerns, led by a decline in Florida, while Colorado, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia were down around 2%.

The slowdown in permits suggests the spring selling season may be weaker than expected. Builders remain wary of demand, and with mortgage rates moving higher and uncertainty growing due to the US-Iran conflict, the housing market as a whole appears to be in continued paralysis.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/map-shows-homebuilders-pulling-back-given-limited-visibility-demand

Time to Dismantle New Jersey’s Mount Laurel Real Estate Scam

 The absurdity of New Jersey’s ill-conceived affordable housing laws is now playing out in full public view atop the highlands of Morris County in the tiny rustic borough of Mendham (population 4,973). First settled in the 1720s, the historic colonial town of Mendham provided support to George Washington and his troops during key New Jersey battles of the American Revolution.

Mendham residents are currently waging a different kind of fight—this time to stop the construction of a five-story, 75-unit apartment complex located in the center of town that is being pushed on the borough by state officials.

For the past 50 years, New Jersey has had a constitutional requirement that every municipality in the state must provide its “fair share” of affordable housing, as calculated by progressive bureaucrats in Trenton. Dubbed the Mount Laurel doctrine, these laws have been steadily ratcheted up over time, particularly over the past decade under the administration of former Governor Phil Murphy.

To pressure local officials into Mount Laurel compliance, the state resorts to strong-arm legal tactics, as highlighted by Mendham’s recent shake-down experience. For the Third Round of fair share calculations covering the period 1999 through 2025, Mendham’s unmet affordable housing need was set at 152 units, equivalent to 8% of the borough’s total household count of 1,802 as of 2024.

Armed with this, a private real estate developer then proposed an apartment building project with 75 rental units, 15 or 20% of which would be set aside for low- and moderate-income tenants. For Mendham, this was an offer that town government could not refuse.

Shockingly, New Jersey law allows private developers to bring so-called builder's remedy lawsuits against any town that blocks high-density housing projects that would help a municipality to satisfy its Mount Laurel obligation. Since the standard of proof is low for such cases, and successful plaintiffs would be entitled to court-ordered rezoning potentially covering more than just the property in question, few New Jersey towns are willing to take the open-ended risk.

To preserve its “immunity” from such “exclusionary zoning litigation,” Mendham was forced to sign legal settlements in 2019 with both the real estate company involved and the Fair Share Housing Center, the litigious state-affiliated housing advocacy group that has tag-teamed with the New Jersey Builders Association on more than 340 such agreements since 2015. As part of its consent decrees, Mendham agreed to change the town’s zoning laws to specifically make way for the controversial apartment complex.

While the project was formally approved by the local planning board in 2025, an alliance of town residents is still appealing that decision in New Jersey Superior Court, alleging that corners were cut regarding environmental regulations—the hilltop borough is located at the headwaters of three major river basins, and the proposed development backs up to wetlands—and other zoning ordinances as part of the quid pro quo agreements signed in 2019.

Originally intended to solve the real problem of racial discrimination in the real estate market, the Mount Laurel doctrine has since devolved into a means of spreading high-density housing throughout the suburbs, mainly through the court-protected 4-to-1 builder’s remedy multiplier. Judging by the number of protest yard signs popping up everywhere, these ubiquitous well-appointed Soviet housing blocks are hugely unpopular with town residents, not just in Mendham but across the Garden State.

For small towns, the large, transient populations that come with these outsized rental apartment buildings complicate resource planning and place a significant strain on public services, especially schools. In the Mendham example, the borough has only one grade and middle school, with total enrollment of roughly 500 students. An influx of 75 new families with just one child each could easily overwhelm the local school system.

For prospective renters, it is also no bargain given the degrees of physical separation from the local community. To date, many New Jersey towns have sited their fair share-forced housing projects either along railroad lines and highways or within commercial and industrial zones or simply on the edge of town. In Mendham’s case, the project is located behind a supermarket and strip mall, further hemmed in by a new car dealership and an existing lumber store—not exactly country living at its finest.

New Jersey municipalities have finally started to push back legally against the rigged Mount Laurel game. A coalition of 40 New Jersey towns (including Mendham) has now sued in state and federal court to challenge the 2024 New Jersey law governing the current Fourth Round of the program and the entire unfair fair share system itself.

Why are the state’s largest cities—including Newark, Paterson and Jersey City—exempt from building new affordable housing units under the Mount Laurel diktats? This pushes a greater fair share housing burden on smaller towns even though large cities account for the lion’s share of New Jersey’s renter, low-income and homeless populations.

Why do affordable housing requirements continue to inexorably rise even for New Jersey towns that are shrinking? Mendham’s population has declined slightly over the past 25 years, yet the borough must still come up with an incremental 124 low-income units over 2025-2035 under the Fourth Round of Mount Laurel—this on top of the 152 just solved for in Round #3. This guarantees more unsolicited builder remedies for Mendham to fend off going forward.

The current coercive and inequitable system where private real estate developers serve as legal enforcers and leverage arbitrary fair share mandates to run roughshod over local zoning and effectively urbanize suburban towns is not what New Jersey’s Supreme Court had in mind when it issued its foundational affordable housing ruling back in 1975. Half a century later, the Mount Laurel doctrine has become a social engineering experiment that is slowly destroying the quality of life and changing the local character of small towns across the Garden State. Just ask Mendham.

Paul H. Tice is a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics, an adjunct professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business and author of the book, “The Race to Zero: How ESG Investing Will Crater the Global Financial System.”

https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2026/03/27/time_to_dismantle_new_jerseys_mount_laurel_real_estate_scam_1173212.html

K-Shaped Economy Bites Back: Retail CRE Transactions For Shops, Malls Plunge

 February U.S. commercial real estate transaction activity appeared soft on the surface, but Goldman analysts believe the weak initial print will likely be revised meaningfully higher. The most notable area of weakness in last month’s transaction data was across the retail space, which is not especially surprising as the K-shaped economy continues to pressure lower-income consumers.

Goldman real estate analyst Julien Blouin wrote Wednesday that the initial February reading on CRE transaction volumes showed a 13% year-over-year decline. He noted that transaction data from MSCI Real Assets is typically "revised materially higher" and said the early print is not a major cause for concern.

Blouin added that prior months were revised higher by roughly 24% to 25% on average, suggesting the final February reading will likely show transaction growth in the high single-digit territory once the data is finalized.

February Transaction Volumes

Volumes are muted and well below Covid surge. Need rates lower. 

Deal activity is improving in some areas, especially office and industrial. Multifamily faced a much tougher comparison versus the same period last year, so the decline looks a lot worse than the underlying trend. The sharpest drop in CRE transactions was in retail, which includes shops, strip malls, convenience stores, restaurants, and malls.

CRE bucket breakdown for February:

• Multifamily/apartments: down 24% year over year

• Office: up 9%

• Industrial: up 15%

• Retail: down 61%

Retail CRE volumes plunged 

Blouin did not get into the details of the slump in retail deal activity, but it does appear buyers may still be selective in retail, due in part to the K-shaped economy, which is pressuring lower-income consumers’ ability to go out and spend at restaurants and shops.

Related:

• AI Takeover Complete: Data Center Construction Surpasses Office Construction For The First Time

The takeaway is that the sharp drop in retail CRE transactions likely reflects buyer caution around consumer-exposed properties, given everything we know about the K-shaped economy.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/k-shaped-economy-revenge-retail-cre-transactions-shops-malls-plunge

Nearly 10% of rent-stabilized NYC buildings run down — as new Mamdani board to pass freeze

 Nearly 10% of rent-stabilized properties in New York City are run down, it was revealed Thursday — as landlords claimed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s promised rent freeze will only make it harder to get those units up to snuff.

Members of the city’s Rent Guidelines Board said at their first meeting of the year Thursday they expect to approve the rent freeze in May, fulfilling a key campaign promise of the new, democratic socialist mayor.

Brian Hoberman, the RGB co-research director, told the board that 9.2% of rent-stabilized buildings were considered distressed, slightly fewer than last year’s 9.3%.

“Since 1990, when 13.9% of stabilized properties were considered distressed, the proportion of distressed buildings declined to as low as 4.9% in 2016,” said Hoberman.

“Subsequently, distress rates rose. So by 2022, the distressed rate was up to 9.8% and since falling over the last two years to 9.2%,” he said.

A rally before the Mamdani administration’s “Rental Ripoff” hearing at Fordham University in The Bronx on March 11, 2026.Getty Images

Hoberman claimed that: “Revenues generally exceed operating costs, generating funds that could be used for mortgage payments, improvements and pre-tax profit.”

But Christine Smyth, an owner representative on the board who was appointed by former Mayor Eric Adams, argued the financial state of these buildings was much more dire.

“We can’t just look at that mean or median numbers that’s going to not tell us what’s going on at the tails,” she said, noting that the COVID pandemic hurt landlords so badly, that they are still just breaking even.

The tally only includes nearly 18,000 of the 50,000 buildings since ones with 11 units or fewer are not required to report finances to the city.

The distressing stat comes after Mamdani campaign that was based around freezing the rent for New Yorkers is stabilized apartments.

The board is set to cast its first vote on the freeze in early May.

Former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration froze the rent three times during his tenure starting in 2015 — just as the percentage of distressed properties started to tick up each year.

De Blasio heralded the board’s decision in 2017 after the two consecutive rent freezes, saying, “I’m very proud that the board made that decision.”

“That’s never been done in history before,” he said, adding, “That happened under this administration because I instructed the Rent Guidelines Board — I name the members — and I instructed them to not follow the biases of the past, but be respectful of the needs of tenants and not just the needs of landlords, and look at all the facts.”

https://nypost.com/2026/03/26/us-news/nearly-10-of-rent-stabilized-nyc-buildings-are-run-down-as-new-mamdani-board-set-to-pass-freeze/

Fannie Mae said to take crypto-backed mortgages

 The United States Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) is set to accept mortgages backed by cryptocurrencies soon, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The media outlet explained that home buyers will get a chance to make a down payment using Bitcoin, as well as other virtual currencies. However, once a digital currency has been pledged, it can no longer be traded.

Better Home & Finance, alongside Coinbase Global Inc., will be unveiling a new mortgage product later today that will allow customers to put their crypto holdings to use when purchasing a Fannie-backed mortgage.

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Fannie-Mae-said-to-take-crypto-backed-mortgages/65957733

Mamdani fights $10B NYC housing voucher expansion in U-turn from campaign promise

 New mayor, same as the old mayor.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani is continuing the legacy of his predecessor Eric Adams by formally appealing a City Council-led expansion of the Big Apple’s housing voucher program — a reverse of a campaign promise.

On Tuesday, Mamdani filed his appeal in the state’s highest court, claiming that the council was attempting to “commandeer” authority over the program, known as CityFHEPS.

That 2023 law would lower requirements to entry and also increase income eligibility, and could bring in up to 50,000 new families to the rental voucher program at a cost of over $10 billion in the first five years.

While city lawyers decry the state of the “woefully underfunded” program, they say the move usurps the authority of city agencies to allocate public assistance.

City lawyers claim the council’s law violates the “interconnected and inextricable chain of authority” between the city and the state, and are not allowed to write their own rules due to this “unique structure.”

“We have no doubt about the Council’s good motives, but the local laws are invalid,” the brief states.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/25/us-news/zohran-mamdani-fights-10b-housing-voucher-expansion-in-u-turn-from-campaign-promise/

Fannie, Freddie Place Large Bids for Mortgage-Backed Securities

 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities, stepping into a market roiled by widening bond spreads amid a surge in volatility, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

The government-controlled entities are moving to capitalize on a sharp selloff while expanding their already significant portfolios of bonds and loans, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Their efforts follow a directive two months ago from President Donald Trump instructing the pair to acquire $200 billion of MBS as part of a push to bolster housing affordability.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-22/fannie-freddie-place-large-bids-for-mortgage-backed-securities