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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Ranch fever: Pandemic drives city slickers to seek out room to roam

 The allure of wide-open spaces is drawing people to snatch up rural land in Texas at a record pace.

Ranch sales in the state nearly doubled between the second quarter of 2021 and the previous year, according to data from the Texas A&M Real Estate Center

While the pandemic played a role in driving down sales in the early part of 2020, the market rebounded considerably, surpassing brokers’ expectations and far exceeding 2019 numbers. 

“It’s a pretty exciting time in land markets right now,” said Charles Gilliland, a land market expert for the Real Estate Center. “A lot of times, it’s just ho-hum, but not right now, that’s for sure.”

During the second quarter of this year, there were more than 9,000 land sales in the state, an increase of 13% during the same period in 2020. Land sales in the second quarter of 2019 totaled about 6,000, similar to the volume of sales in the years going back to 2016.

Statewide, prices ballooned with price-per-acre increasing almost 18% in the last year. But some regions in Texas are hotter than others. 

In the Hill Country just north of Bexar County, the price-per-acre jumped sharply in 2019 — by 18% over the previous year — then rose again in 2020, by another 6% to $10,500 an acre. 

As development continues north from San Antonio, Texas Hill Country ranchland remains sought after. Credit: Scott Ball / San Antonio Report

The Real Estate Center evaluates land sales volume and prices by region. Of the eight regions in the state, the areas with the biggest increases are Northeast Texas, the Gulf Coast/Brazos Bottom, the Waco-Austin-Hill Country area, and South Texas, which includes San Antonio. 

Sales and prices are lower in West Texas and the Panhandle. “Essentially that part of the state has been transformed from a quiet ranch market to an industrial market,” Gilliland said. “Oil has been inspiring a lot of activity out there so when the prices collapsed last year, it got quiet, and it’s kind of stayed that way.”

The recent Texas land rush began shortly after a complete halt in sales in March 2020, said Robert Dullnig, broker associate of Dullnig Ranch Sales who recently announced the sale of Geronimo Springs Ranch, a 2,770-acre Hill Country property on San Geronimo Creek. Listed at $43 million, the property was on the market for only 45 days.

That’s a tremendous turnaround from what Dullnig and other land brokers predicted when the pandemic began. 

“We didn’t show a ranch product for three weeks because of COVID. … No one knew what was going to happen,” Dullnig said. “All of a sudden, about mid-April to late April, the floodgates opened. One week specifically, I had five different buyers call their request, all saying across the board, ‘I want to be an hour and a half from San Antonio. We’re never going to be stuck in a city again.’”

None of the potential buyers were “tire kickers,” he said. They were determined and serious, with some telling Dullnig they planned to cash out a certificate of deposit or sell a commercial property or take money from an investment fund to buy land. The pandemic provided the motivation.

“Everyone was adamant they were not going to be stuck in a city again, that if this country were to shut down, they were going to have someplace to go to,” Dullnig said.

In addition, people are looking for an investment to protect their capital and land tends to retain its value, even when the economy sours, Gilliland said. 

As the pandemic raged on, by July 2020, rural land started selling at a rapid pace, Dullnig said, with larger tracts priced in the $30 million to $50 million range very common. 

What he thought, early on in 2020, would go down in history as a slow year turned out the opposite. “It was the highest sales volume that we’ve had in one year,” Dullnig said. And the requests keep coming.

But transactions have slowed as the inventory of rural land has been scooped up in the past year, especially those with water — located on a creek or river, or lakeside — which also carries a bigger price tag. 

“What I’m hearing from a lot of brokers is that they’ve sold everything that they had to sell and they really don’t have any inventory now,” Gilliland said, with some taking to “ringing doorbells,” asking landowners if they want to sell.

“I talked to a broker in Junction and he said that any listing they get, they sell within one or two days right now,” he said. “Everybody that I speak to is very busy.”

The research economist also believes, having studied the industry since the 1980s, that the current land rush eventually will come to an end and prices will flatten out. 

“But at this point, there’s nothing on the horizon that looks like it’s going to cause that to happen,” he said. 

https://sanantonioreport.org/ranch-fever-pandemic-drives-city-slickers-to-seek-out-room-to-roam/

U.S. Treasury expects rental aid to reach $25-30 billion by year-end

 

State and local governments distributed more than $2.8 billion in emergency rental assistance funds to more than 521,000 renters in October, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday, forecasting that $25 billion to $30 billion in such funds would be spent or obligated by the end of the year.

The Treasury said its efforts over the last six months to give state and local governments more flexibility in distributing the funds had helped accelerate the flow to renters in need, after slow early progress.

In its latest update on the program, the Treasury said more than 2.5 million payments had been made to renters.

For ERA 1 alone, the Treasury estimates that at least 80% of the program's funding will be spent or obligated by year-end, nine months before the deadline for grantees to spend their initial allocations.

As of the end of October, more than 100 state and local governments receiving grants had expended 95% or more of their funds, and nearly 130 grantees had begun to spend their ERA 2 funds.

The Treasury said it had begun to reallocate unused funds, but said it expected only a limited amount to be available, given the rapid pace of improvement in the ERA programs.

The Treasury is also encouraging states and localities to use other sources of funds, including the $350 billion Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds, to provide additional support to renters.

The U.S. residential rental vacancy rate dropped further in the third quarter as the economy continued to normalize after severe disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially indicating that high inflation could last for a while.

The rental vacancy rate is closely watched as the debate over whether the current phase of high inflation is transitory heats up. Rents increased by the most since 2001 in September, helping to boost consumer prices that month.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/U-S-Treasury-expects-rental-aid-to-reach-25-30-billion-by-year-end--37160485/

Monday, November 29, 2021

Biden admin to redirect rental-assistance funds to areas with greater demand

 The Treasury Department is redirecting rental-assistance money from some states and localities that haven’t used the bulk of their funds to others facing backlogs of aid requests, according to administration officials.\The officials said they couldn’t specify which jurisdictions would lose and gain funds. But they said those with large amounts of unused funds include rural states—like Montana and North Dakota—while local officials in several more populous states—like New York and Texas—are expected to exhaust their rental-assistance money over the coming week and months.

Officials said an initial reallocation, set to be unveiled in early December, could exceed $800 million and come at the request of states and localities that acknowledge they have more money than they can spend. Much of that money may be moved within states, rather than from one state to another—for instance, from a state-run program to a city-run program, or vice versa.

By the end of the year, the administration expects as much as $20 billion of the $47 billion in rental-assistance funding Congress authorized to be spent. An additional $5 billion to $10 billion will be committed to a specific tenant or landlord but not yet distributed.

"There is less unspent money today than there was six months ago, but we’re still committed to make sure that the money that is unspent gets reallocated as quickly as possible," said Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo. "There is a need to make sure that we get this money to tenants who need it."

The rental-assistance program got off to a slow start this year. Though just a fraction of the aid was distributed before a national eviction moratorium ended this summer, more money is now finding its way to tenants and landlords.

While the program is overseen by the Treasury Department, it relies on a patchwork of more than 450 state, county, and municipal governments and charitable organizations to distribute the aid, which can be used to cover back rent, future rent, and utilities.

It took states and localities months to build new programs from scratch, hire staff, and craft rules for how the money should be distributed. Often, tenants and landlords didn’t know money was available, and many of those who applied had to contend with cumbersome applications and requests for documentation. Treasury officials issued guidance to ease the paperwork burden and boost the flow of money to renters and landlords.

Several months later, administration officials say much more money is out the door but the data show uneven demand.

Administration officials said that some rural states, such as Montana and North Dakota, were allotted significantly more money than they have spent.

As of Sept. 30, Montana had distributed just 11% of its $200 million in rental assistance while North Dakota had distributed a mere 4%.

Meanwhile, New York, Texas, and Oregon, facing intense demand for the assistance, have announced plans to shut down their much larger programs to new applicants because they expect to exhaust their funds. California and Illinois could soon be in a similar situation, federal officials said.

"Given the significant need and rapid pace of the program’s distribution of assistance, California will soon require additional Emergency Rental Assistance funds," Lourdes Castro Ramírez, secretary of the California Business, Consumer Services and Housing Agency, wrote to Mr. Adeyemo last month.

The first $25 billion in the rental-assistance program was included in a pandemic aid package signed by then-President Donald Trump in December. Congress appropriated another $21.6 billion in March.

Administration officials said they are considering intrastate reallocations—from states to city-run programs or from cities to states.

Treasury won’t begin to reallocate money from the second, $21.6 billion pot of money until March.

As a result, officials said, some heavily populated regions of the country may continue to experience a shortage of funding even after they receive reallocated funds from other jurisdictions.

Gene Sperling, a senior adviser to President Biden, said too many avoidable evictions will take place unless the administration uses reallocation "to get more places to up their game and more funds to those most effective in getting aid quickly to very vulnerable renters and small landlords."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-administration-redirect-rental-assistance-funds-areas-greater-demand

Gen Z Wants Single-Family Homes; Rental Owners Are Happy To Oblige

 Zillow’s exit from the house-flipping business created an opening for investors bullish on the single-family rental market, with an inventory of 9,800 houses nationwide up for sale. 

Single-family rentals are still a relatively small part of the U.S. residential market, but investors are now betting on surging demand for such properties in the wake of rising house prices exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. 

Investors are also betting on something else: a long-term shift in demand away from apartments and toward single-family houses, especially among the generation rising after millennials. They might not be able to quickly afford to buy a house like their parents or grandparents, but data shows they want to live in one.

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Among members of Generation Z between 18 and 23 years old surveyed by the National Apartment Association, 43% of respondents say they want to rent a single-family detached property after entering the workforce, while 44% would prefer to live in a "vibrant suburb," compared to the 23% who would prefer the city. 

Investors want to make that happen, with a growing number of companies throwing their hats into the single-family rental ring. 

These players could win big under such a shift in demand from the multifamily sector, though the SFR product has headwinds similar to that of the typical residential market: a lack of inventory. 

"There's a lot of capital looking to invest in this space but few executable projects," IHP Capital Partners Senior Vice President Jeff Enes said. "Resale inventory remains low in many markets, and for developers, there tends to be a protracted entitlement process, which makes it difficult to bring new product to market."

Interest in the sector is encouraged by renter demand from new demographics and incentives for build-to-rent product, which has an 8% annual return on average, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing Green Street data. That is the highest of any property sector tracked by the firm. 

"Building upon our experience, IHP is looking to expand that business in multiple markets," Enes said. 

IHP Capital provides equity for homebuilders in the West, where it is currently involved in 37 residential projects. IHP is also pursuing single-family rental projects. Through an affiliate, IHP is developing five single-family rental communities in Phoenix, one of the hotter single-family rental markets.

Most single-family investors are still small operators, many with just one investment property. Larger investors owned about 300,000 single-family rental houses as of 2019, according to Laurie Goodman, vice president for housing finance policy at the Urban Institute, while small-scale investors own 15 million units. But larger investors are seeking to expand their presence in what they see as a growth market.

JLL Income Property Trust recently jumped into the game by purchasing a 47% interest in a portfolio of over 4,000 homes assembled by Amherst Residential, which manages the properties. The company paid about $560M for its share of the houses, which are in such markets as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Nashville, Tennessee, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Tampa, Florida. 

The company flagged single-family rentals as a "near-core property sector poised for accelerating institutional capital inflows," JLL Income Property Trust President and CEO Allan Swaringen said in a statement.

"Given the superior long-term tenant demand growth outlook, our research projects long-term expected rent and NOI growth above all other institutional property type averages,” he said.  

Zillow could serve as a source for expansion for single-family rental investors. A company spokesperson told Bisnow the firm will sell the remaining inventory "the same way we always have, by selling to buyers of all kinds, including individuals, families, individual investors, institutional investors and nonprofits."

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Regardless of the ultimate disposition of those particular properties, the demand for those homes is clear. 

During the third quarter of 2021, real estate investors bought 18.2% of all U.S. homes purchased, up from 11.2% the year prior, according to Redfin, and representing the highest percentage on record since Redfin began tracking the market in 2000.

The Q3 percentage represents 90,215 residential units, with investors paying nearly $64B for the properties, up from $59B in the second quarter and $36B a year earlier. 

Some markets are attracting more investor interest than others, according to Redfin. In Atlanta, about one-third of homes sold in the third quarter were snapped up by investors, the highest rate among the 40 metros the company analyzed. Next were Phoenix, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Florida, and Miami. 

Those markets have seen steady year-over-year increases in multifamily rents, and the addition of SFR inventory could potentially level out those gains. 

Spurred by a 5.7% rent increase in Q2 2021 alone, the average effective apartment rent has risen in Metro Atlanta by 11% year-over-year, Marcus & Millichap reports. Phoenix, meanwhile, has seen apartment rents spike 20% since August 2020, according to ApartmentList.com.

The larger backdrop of demand for single-family rental housing is the frenetic overall U.S. housing market. 

In 2020, existing-home sales rose 6% year-over-year while new single-family home sales spiked by 20%, putting total home sales at their highest level since 2006, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

Meanwhile, rents in institutionally owned SFR portfolios grew more than 3% annualized in 2020, according to data from DBRS Morningstar. The pandemic was at work: Reduced mobility pushed more individuals and families to rental homes with more space.

The activities of single-family investors will drive home prices up further, critics say, especially in growing metro areas where investors are snapping up relatively inexpensive single-family homes

As investors buy sites to develop single-family rentals, homebuilders would be forced to compete, potentially paying more for entitled land. That cost most likely would be passed along to buyers.

What's more, investors are already competing directly with traditional homebuyers, which may worsen the prospect of homeownership for those entering the job market or millennials unable to exit the rental market. 

"Large investors buying single-family homes is a significant threat to the average homebuyer since the average homebuyer cannot compete," said Carmen Hill, a Los Angeles-area residential real estate broker and professor of real estate investments at Cerritos College.

Other investors pursuing land acquisitions in anticipation of continued demand for single-family properties, for sale or otherwise, include alternative investment firm Värde Partners, which has entered into a land banking facility agreement with Taylor Morrison Home Corp., the nation’s fifth-largest homebuilder.

“The significant growth in demand for suburban housing has exposed a persistent shortfall in supply, creating substantial opportunities to invest," Värde Partners Managing Director Brendan Bosman said. 

Though Taylor Morrison mostly develops properties for sale to individual buyers, it has been exploring single-family rentals since before the pandemic. In 2019, the Scottsdale, Arizona-based homebuilder formed a partnership with Christopher Todd Communities to build single-family rental communities.

Other major players in the single-family rental space, such as Pretium Partners, are also expanding their reach. 

Pretium's rental property management operation, Progress Residential, owned about 66,000 single-family homes in 29 markets as of the end of Q2 2021, with an occupancy rate of nearly 97%, according to the company.

In January, Pretium formed a $700M joint venture with Canada’s Public Sector Pension Investment Board to develop SFR housing in the U.S. In September, Pretium formed another joint venture with Crescent Communities to develop $1B in new single-family build-to-rent communities. The first community will be in the Charleston, South Carolina, market, and others will follow in the Southeast and Southwest.

The partnership plans to develop more than 3,000 new rental homes altogether, according to Crescent Communities Managing Director, Single-Family Build-to-Rent Tony Chen.

"There is significant opportunity in the SFR market and a clear sense of urgency among institutional investors to deploy capital to this asset class," Pretium Chairman and CEO Don Mullen said in a statement early this year.

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/build-to-rent/investors-extra-bullish-on-single-family-homes-in-pandemics-wake-110951

Cannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance sets terms for $106M IPO

 Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, a newly-formed commercial mortgage REIT focused on the cannabis industry, announced terms for its IPO on Monday.


The Chicago, IL-based company plans to raise $106 million by offering 6.3 million shares at a price range of $16 to $18. The company plans to raise an additional $7.5 million in a concurrent private placement to certain executives. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance would command a market value of $296 million. The company plans to issue regular quarterly dividends.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance is a newly-formed commercial real estate finance company whose objective is to originate, structure, and invest in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio is comprised primarily of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry, secured by real estate, equipment, receivables, licenses, or other assets. As of September 30, 2021, the company's portfolio includes one loan that is subordinate to a first mortgage.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance was founded in 2021 and booked $5 million in revenue for the 12 months ended September 30, 2021. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol REFI. JMP Securities, Compass Point, and Oppenheimer & Co. are the joint bookrunners on the deal.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Even in Tech Hub Shenzhen, China's Property Market Succumbs to Chills

 Life used to be good for Jerry Tang, who left his rural hometown in 2014 to become a real estate agent in Shenzhen - China's tech megacity and one of the world's hottest property markets.

Just a few years ago Tang could make up to 50,000 yuan ($7,800) in a good month selling apartments. Last year, he was making around 15,000 yuan a month, but this year that's fallen to about 5,000 yuan and mostly comes from commission on rentals.

"It's definitely much harder to sell this year," he said. "Buyers are waiting to see what happens with the market, while developers are cash-strapped, they are taking time to pay commission to agents."

In Shenzhen - home to 17.6 million people and firms like gaming powerhouse Tencent Holdings Ltd and telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies - some smaller realtor offices have closed. Eight real estate agents Reuters spoke with also say at least a third of their colleagues have either left the industry or are thinking about it.

Lianjia, a major realtor, plans to shut down a fifth, or about a hundred, of its offices in Shenzhen, financial news service Caixin reported in September, citing an internal memo. Lianjia and its parent company KE Holdings did not respond to requests for comment.

The lack of turnover in Shenzhen's property market and the fallout on the city's real estate brokers stems in part from deliberate policy efforts over the past year by local authorities to make apartment prices more affordable, including requiring higher down payments for second homes and capping resale prices.

But real estate agents say it also due to the current crisis of confidence hitting China's property industry, highlighting just how extensively the sector's woes are reverberating. If Shenzhen - emblematic of China's meteoric economic rise over the past 40 years - is not immune, then few places in the country are.

China's property market, which accounts for a quarter of GDP by some metrics, has been suffering unprecedented stress after policymakers this year introduced debt caps to rein in excessive borrowing by developers.

That in turn has helped lead to liquidity crises at developers such as China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted developer, and Kaisa Group Holdings. Both of them also happen to be headquartered in Shenzhen. Policymakers are, however, widely expected to stand firm on the new rules which are perceived as necessary reform.

Prices for new homes in Shenzhen fell 0.2% in October from a month earlier - their first drop this year - and in line with the national average. It remains to be seen, however, if Shenzhen's property prices will suffer the more sustained, albeit still small declines that have hit some second-tier Chinese cities this year.

In its favour, the southern tech hub's economy is not much smaller than that of fellow megacity Shanghai's but Shenzhen has only a third of the land, ensuring strong underlying demand for apartments.

"Buyers are concerned about Evergrande and contagion, but in Shenzhen they know other developers would step in to finish projects if they had to," Tang said.

For some, the tougher curbs and subsequent property market chills are a sign that speculative buying - often rampant in China as traditionally there have been few other investment options - could become a thing of the past.

"My parents' generation could close their eyes and point somewhere to invest their money and get a great return - they could gamble," said Lisa Li, who works in the investment industry and recently bought a small studio apartment but found the process nerve-wracking.

"Our generation can't do that, we'd be in trouble," she said.

That's cold comfort, however, for Tang, 30, who says he is thinking of changing jobs.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

More 'smash and grab' crimes mar Black Friday cheer

 

Police are stepping up their presence at malls and shopping centers across the U.S. this Black Friday weekend amid a spike of so called "smash-and-grab" robberies.

Videos of the chaotic robberies - showing masked figures breaking into stores, running out with bags of merchandise, and fleeing in cars idling outside - have flooded social media in recent days,

The Los Angeles Police Department confirmed to local media that a California location of luxury Italian merchandiser Bottega Veneta was the site of a robbery Friday...

And this store selling designer jeans was forced to close its doors after it was hit on Friday night as well.

Mall operators and shopkeepers are taking note and are doing what they can, says Louis Schillace of Westfield Century City in L.A.

"We a monitoring the situation with smash and grabs robberies around the country very closely. We have a great relationship with LAPD and local authorities and are working with them to make sure we're fully prepared."

The brazen robberies started at high-end shops like Nordstrom earlier in the week, but now the robberies are spreading to more middle-of-the-road retailers as well.

(SOT: Scott Konasinski, Palo Alto)

"It's almost movie-like, Hollywood like."

In Chicago, three shops were looted on Black Friday in just about an hour.

First, it was a Footlocker....

then North Face....

followed by Boost Mobile.

The retail industry is nervous about the spate of robberies, which are happening at a time when retailers are trying to recoup dollars lost during the health crisis, while grappling with product shortages at the most important shopping season of the year.

Police officers are beefing up their presence but so far that hasn't deterred the robbers.

In an ominous sign, there was a smash and grab Friday at a Home Depot in Lakewood, California, just 23 miles from Los Angeles, where robbers made off with sledgehammers, crowbars and hammers... Police telling local media they feared more smash and grabs were in the works.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Smash-and-grab-crimes-mar-Black-Friday-cheer--37150390/

Mobs Of Looters Hit Minneapolis Best Buy, California Home Depot On Black Friday

 The level of lawlessness continues to surge as a rash of looting is happening across the country. The latest occurred on Friday evening when 30 people robbed a Best Buy store in Burnsville, Minnesota. 

CNN affiliate WCCO said the group of people arrived at the Best Buy store in the south metro area, approximately 15 miles south of Minneapolis, around 8 pm local time and looted the store. 

No one in the mob brandished a weapon, nor were any injuries reported. No arrests have been made, and thieves made off with thousands of dollars in electronics.


WCCO also reports a flash mob hit another Best Buy in the metro area on Friday. The number of flash mobs robbing retailers has unleashed a shoplifting epidemic that is plaguing this country. 

Last week, Best Buy shares crashed after the company reported margin compression due to organized thefts. 

"We are seeing more and more particularly organized retail crime," CEO Corie Barry said on a conference call with analysts.

"You can see that pressure in our financials, and more importantly, frankly, you can see that pressure with our associates. It's traumatizing."

Just last week, a mob of at least 80 people ransacked a Nordstrom in an upscale community in the outskirts of the San Francisco Bay Area. 

Flash mobs have also targeted Louis Vuitton stores in Democrat cities where penalties for thefts have been eased. 

According to the National Retail Federation, organized retail crime costs retailers $700,000 per $1 billion in sales every year. Another industry group, Buy Safe America, estimates shoplifting costs retailers billions of dollars in lost economic activity each year. 

Criminal-justice reforms in some Democrat cities reduced penalties for shoplifting. This has allowed looters to have no fear of being confronted as they would only get a slap on the wrist if they are caught and won't be charged with a felony. 

Some of the most common consumer goods looters are targeting this year are high-end purses, clothing, and handbags, top-shelf liquor, laundry detergent, allergy medicine, razors, and pain relievers. 

"At the end of the day, it's still about supply and demand," said Tony Sheppard, director of loss prevention solutions at ThinkLP. This software developer helps retailers prevent theft and manage its impact.

"The demand for product online skyrocketed, and as a result, so too did the demand for stolen product."

Meanwhile, approximately 10 looters in California hit a Home Depot in a Los Angeles suburb and stole hammers, crowbars and other tools, according to CNN.

The incident took place at approximately 8 p.m. local time in Lakewood, Los Angeles Sheriff's Department Deputy Miguel Meza told CNN. Lakewood is a city in Los Angeles County.
      The thieves made off with hammers, sledgehammers, crowbars and other tools. After grabbing the items, they ran out of the store and got into a getaway car parked outside, Meza said.

      The nation, under the Biden administration, is quickly descending into total lawlessness this holiday season. 

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/group-20-30-looters-rob-minneapolis-best-buy-black-friday