For the first time since January 2023, US Home Prices, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller's 20-City Composite Index, fell (-0.12% MoM) in March (the latest data available). That dragged the YoY change in home price down to +4.07%, the lowest since August 2023
Source: Bloomberg
Tampa prices continue to tumble...
Source: Bloomberg
Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, the next couple of months do not bode well...
Source: Bloomberg
However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next couple of months before re-accelerating once again...
Source: Bloomberg
So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices... and now prices are tumbling again as you pause... Well played Fed!!
Thousands of rent-stabilized apartments in NYC are under threat of foreclosure as an increasing number of landlords stop paying their mortgages — making the coveted units even more scarce, insiders told The Post.
Buildings with a cumulative 176 rent-stabilized units have been foreclosed upon since 2022 – a figure that’s been doubling every year on average — with another 2,093 stabilized units have been put on notice by banks in April that landlords are defaulting on their mortgages, according to an analysis by PropertyShark data.
“It’s a bloodbath,” said Sarah Saltzberg, co-owner of Bohemia Realty Group, who rents pre-war units in upper Manhattan.
Sarah Salzberg says many rent-controlled property owners are losing money — not making it.Bohemia Realty Group
Owners lose money on stabilized units, so they leave them empty and skip the listing — or walk away entirely, leading to foreclosures, Saltzberg said.
“The owners are under water — that’s why in the past year it keeps happening over and over,” she said.
Many of the pre-1974 buildings — the year NYC established the rent stabilization system — desperately need repairs, but owners have stopped investing due to 2019 laws capping rent hikes after improvements at 2% and banning landlords from raising rents by up to 20% upon vacancy — changes that cut property values. Rising interest rates over the past three years also slowed renovations to a crawl.
Tenant advocacy groups and Democratic state legislators lobbied hard for these changes, considered the biggest overhaul of New York’s rent laws in a generation — arguing they were necessary to protect tenants against rent hikes and evictions.
Coco Portofe’s landlord has bailed on mortgage payments since January 2024, but she still has to pay rent every month.Helayne Seidman
“A lot of us might end up displaced — a new owner can come in and kick us all out,” said Coco Portofe, 34, whose East Village rent-stabilized building is the subject of ongoing court proceedings.
If a landlord defaults, a new owner has to keep rent-stabilized units stabilized and keep rent the same.
But the issue is when no one wants to buy the foreclosed property because the rent-stabilized units make it so financially unattractive, insiders told The Post.
In that case, the building’s residents could face eviction.
“There are situations where given the rent-stabilized nature of the tenancy, any purchase price over $1 would be ludicrous,” said foreclosure attorney Alexander Paykin.
A foreclosure notice has been put on the door at 510 and 514 East 12th Street, which both have the same owner.Helayne Seidman
Experts point to a recent case in March, when mortgage lender Santander Bank refused to even take the keys of a foreclosed rent-stabilized building in Harlem, as indicative of what could come. Some fear a repeat of the 1970s, when New York landlords simply walked away from decaying buildings that were no longer profitable to rent out.
Portofe’s landlord – private equity firm Madison Capital Realty — is accused by its lender, the Community Preservation Corp., of not making mortgage payments on her building since January 2024, court records show.
“I have to pay rent on time, and they are not upholding their part of the bargain,” said Portofe, who pays $2,200 a month for a rent-stabilized one bedroom on East 12th Street.
Market rate for one bedroom in her nabe rent for an average of $3,800, according to StreetEasy.
Adam Tantleff, Brian Shatz and Josh Zegen are the managing principals of Madison Realty — Portofe’s landlord.Madison Realty Capital
A total of 209 rent-stabilized apartments across 15 East Village buildings are part of the lawsuit.
Residential portfolio acquired by Madison acquired those units in 2021 as part of a residential portfolio for $153 million — a small part of the real estate investment firm’s $22 billion assets under management.
Madison Capital is accused of “intentional misconduct” and “gross negligence for “wrongfully” collecting rent and failing to turn over that money to its lender — to whom it’s said to owe more than $76 million in mortgage payments, interest and late fees.
Madison Realty bailed on mortgage payments on a set of 15 rent-stabilized buildings in the East Village, according to court documents.Helayne Seidman
Madison Realty Capital didn’t respond to The Post’s request for comment.
According to data from the Rent Guidelines Board — 10% of the 643,140 pre-1974 rent-stabilized apartments in New York City — an estimated 64,314 units – are losing money, a figured that’s doubled since 2019 and is only expected to grow.
Before the rental laws were overhauled, rent-stabilized buildings were a lot more profitable.
Willis is with NYU’S Furman Center, who works to advance knowledge and debate on housing in the city.NYU Furman Center
“The extent of this rent shortfall will grow over time, risking the long-term sustainability of these key segments of the city’s affordable housing stock,” said Mark A. Willis, a senior policy fellow at NYU’s Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy.
And about to make matters even worse is a tax-lien sale the city Department of Finance is planning to hold on June 3 — the first since the pandemic — to sell the debt of landlords who’ve been delaying property tax, water or sewer payments to try to stay afloat.
Whoever buys up that debt could foreclose on the properties to collect what’s owed.
New home sales surged 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Friday.
The sales pace for March was revised down to a rate of 670,000 units from the previously reported 724,000 units, while that for February was downgraded to 653,000 units from 674,000 units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which make up about 15.7% of US home sales, declining to a rate of 693,000 units. New home sales, which are counted at the signing of a contract, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to big revisions.
They advanced 3.3% on a year-on-year basis in April. Sales last month tumbled 14.8% in the Northeast. They, however, jumped 35.5% in the Midwest and increased 11.7% in the densely populated South. Sales climbed 3.3% in the West.
Higher mortgage rates and an unsettled economic outlook amid President Trump’s aggressive trade policy and mass firings of public workers have sidelined buyers, leaving builders to cut prices and offer incentives to ease some of the squeeze on buyers from higher borrowing costs.
The median new house price dropped 2.0% to $407,200 in April from a year earlier.Christopher Sadowski
Builders cutting prices
The median new house price dropped 2.0% to $407,200 in April from a year earlier. Prices could moderate further as the National Association of Homebuilders reported last week that the share of builders cutting prices in May was the highest in nearly 1-1/2 years.
The bulk of homes sold in April were in the $300,000-$399,999 price range. Most of the houses were either completed or under construction.
“Builder incentives including price reductions may lend some support to sales, but we think that will be outweighed by weaker economic growth and rising mortgage rates, which are closing in on 7%,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.
The rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.86% this week, a three-month high, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
Mortgage rates have increased in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note on concerns over the Trump administration’s policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal outlook after Moody’s Investors Service cut its sovereign credit rating from the top “Aaa” level.
The House on Thursday passed Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated would add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government’s $36.2 trillion debt in the next decade, if it becomes law.
The inventory of new homes last month dipped 0.6% to 504,000 units, remaining near levels last seen in late 2007. Homes under construction constituted most of the inventory. At April’s sales pace it would take 8.1 months to clear the supply of new houses on the market, down from 9.1 months in March.
With supply of previously owned homes now the highest in more than four years, the outlook for new construction is dim.
“Housing starts have already declined, suggesting that the availability of new builds will fade from here,” said Ben Ayers, a senior economist at Nationwide. “Additionally, the buildup in existing homes for sale should shift some demand away from the new home market over 2025.”
CHIMNEY ROCK, N.C.—North Carolina officials estimate that it will take many years, many hands, and up to $60 billion to recover from the widespread devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in late September 2024.
In the historic village of Chimney Rock, located in the western part of the state, a dedicated army of volunteers has been providing much-needed assistance to the recovery effort at no cost.
“It hasn’t required much funding,” Shane Zoccole, founder and director of the South Carolina-based disaster relief nonprofit Spokes of Hope, said.
Zoccole told The Epoch Times that the recovery effort in Chimney Rock is primarily driven by volunteers.
“Chimney Rock is essential to the valley—it’s the commerce of this area,“ he said. ”We felt led to help the businesses, to help the people here, and to get this town to stay on the map instead of going off the map.”
Since October 2024, Zoccole has led more than 2,000 volunteers from various nonprofits willing to help without compensation.
Among the volunteers are hundreds of Amish and Mennonite people from Ohio and Pennsylvania who are ready to go the distance, he said.
“We eat breakfast by 8 a.m., work orders go out, we’re working by 8:30, and then we work until just about 6 p.m., when dinner is served,” Zoccole said.
“It’s been all the moving parts connecting with local business owners and volunteers across the nation.”
He said it has been a collaborative effort since the hurricane made a lasting impact on the landscape eight months ago.
Zoccole founded Spokes of Hope in 2018 after Hurricane Florence caused nine deaths and resulted in $2 billion in damages across South Carolina.
However, that was dwarfed by the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, he said.
Much of Chimney Rock, a village in western North Carolina’s Hickory Nut Gorge on the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, was either damaged, destroyed, or buried under several feet of mud.
The bridge over the Rocky Broad River, leading to the state park near the village, collapsed in the rising floodwaters, which reached a height of 20 feet.
The ferocious wind, powerful currents, and heavy rain swept away several businesses along the river. All that remained were the concrete foundations.
Near the Bat Cave residential area, a ticket booth remained on its side, while the stately homes further upriver lay in ruins or exhibited heavy damage. Many homes that survived the torrent were no longer safe for habitation.
“Still here, still standing,” read a sign on a house that remained livable.
Confronted with such devastation, Zoccole’s initial reaction was that using a bulldozer to clear the wreckage would be a more effective solution than implementing a reconstruction plan for the village.
Nonetheless, Zoccole and his relief volunteers refused to give up on the community.
“We have to go to the finish,” he said.
“If we don’t finish something that we’ve started, then we’ve [basically] told these people we’re only here part-time for you. We’re only here to help you a little bit.”
Members of the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division arrived in early October 2024, armed with buckets and shovels to clear the knee-deep mud and allow other volunteers to begin repairs.
By early May, volunteers had removed tons of silt and debris from the water-damaged shops. They rebuilt several of them to code using donated and repurposed materials and equipment.
Although many shops remain closed for repairs, Chimney Rock Village no longer bears the worst scars from the hurricane.
Zoccole noted that considerable work remains, as the village business center plans to reopen this summer, possibly in June.
“Our success is in our unity. We’ve been able to pull together ahead of schedule,” he said.
A Storm Like No Other
Chimney Rock Village, located in Rutherford County, has a rural population of about 140 residents. It is one of the 39 counties in North Carolina designated as a critical disaster area following Hurricane Helene.
The hurricane struck Florida with winds of 140 mph on Sept. 26, 2024, before moving into North Carolina the next morning and causing severe rain, flooding, and deadly landslides across much of the western third of the state.
In certain regions, rainfall accumulation reached as much as 30 inches. The storm caused damage to, or destroyed, more than 73,000 homes, roads, and bridges across 6,900 sites, including the heavily trafficked Interstate 40.
The storm claimed more than 100 lives across the state and directly caused 176 deaths across the southeastern region, with seven residents still unaccounted for in North Carolina, according to federal government data.
One resident of Chimney Rock Village lost her life during the storm, which was deemed the worst since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
According to a revised North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management assessment, the estimated multi-year recovery costs are nearly $60 billion.
The report estimates the storm’s total economic impact at more than $16 billion, which includes $3 billion in direct damages to businesses, and more than $12 billion in lost revenue, excluding wages and income.
Then-North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper requested $3.9 billion from the General Assembly to support struggling communities. Of this total, $1.2 billion has already been allocated, with an additional $225 million set aside in reserve.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has designated $850 million for this initiative, which includes the deployment of 8,500 personnel for emergency response.
‘Nothing but Mud’
Erica Stafford, 40, is the head chef and kitchen manager at Lured Market and Grill near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock.
She said she has witnessed powerful storms and the death and economic havoc they leave behind, but Helene seemed to be far worse.
“Nobody expected it to be what it was,” Stafford said. “Even living here, I thought, ‘Well, there’ll be some flooding. We’re going to have a tree down. We’re going to be out of power.’ Nobody expected the amount of damage done.
“It was such a mess. I got down here, and it was nothing but mud.”
