While substantial progress has been made in fighting Northern California’s massive Carr and Mendocino Complexwildfires, there are more than 13,000 homes in areas where the fires are still active, according to a Zillow analysis. State officials have declared 2,000 homes are in immediate danger.
Combined, the fires have scorched more than 630,000 acres, an area almost as large as the state of Rhode Island. Four people have died, almost 1,400 homes have been destroyed and another 200 significantly damaged. Zillow’s broad look at these regions and found that more than 13,000 homes exist in census tracts that currently contain active fire activity.
Homes in the still-active area of the Mendocino Complex Fire[1] have a median value of $217,500, slightly less than the national median in July ($218,000) and far less than the in the state of California as a whole ($541,800). With a median value of $316,000, those homes at risk in the vicinity of the Carr Fire are typically worth more than both the national median and the median in Shasta County, where the fire is largely located.
In each of the counties directly affected by these fires, home value growth appears to be slowing – the annual pace of growth was slower in July than in June, similar to the broader national trend. Unlike the nation as a whole, however – and unlike last summer’s wildfires that raged through California’s Napa Valley – inventory of homes available for sale in the impacted counties has been on the rise.
In each of the past four months in Shasta County, the number of homes available for sale has increased on an annual basis for the last four months. Mendocino County has followed a similar trend, with inventory up 36 percent in July compared to a year ago. In Lake County, inventory growth has slowed in recent months, but it was still up by more than 20 percent year-over-year in July. Lastly, after months of inventory declines, often at double digit annual rates, inventory in Colusa County is flat from last year. For those displaced by the wildfires, this may offer some small hope that they will be able to find another home for sale nearby.
As the fires rage on, and this devastating season continues, it’s still much too soon to assess the true number and values of homes destroyed. These communities could take years to fully rebuild, and given the whims of Mother Nature, the situation could get worse before it gets better. But compared to recent years, the current real estate climate may offer more reasons for optimism among those struggling with the fires’ widespread impact.
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