New home sales fell 4.7 percent in August but the supply of homes started homes and finished homes is the big story.
Let’s discuss the New Residential Sales report for August 2024.
New Home Sales Details
- New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in August 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000. This is 4.7 percent (±10.6 percent) below the revised July rate of 751,000, but is 9.8 percent (±22.1 percent) above the August 2023 estimate of 652,000.
- Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700.
- For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 467,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.
Note the margins of error in these sales numbers.
New Home Sales Since 1963
New Home Sales Since 1963 Details
- New home sales are down 30.1 percent from October 2020
- New home sales are up 38.0 percent from July 2022
- New home sales are about where they were in March of 1973
It’s pretty easy to spin the numbers however you want
New Home For Sale by Stage of Construction
Stage of Construction Details
- Of the alleged 467,000 homes for sales 96,000 have not been started
- 105,000 are finished and the number is rising at the fastest rate since the Great Recession
- 365,000 homes are started or completed. This represents a builder commitment that’s very hard to stop.
Increasing Inventory Notes (Lead Chart)
- Most supply of completed homes since October 2009
- Most supply of started or finished homes since May 2008
- Counting vacant land, supply is the highest since March 2008
The Fed Predicts an Immaculate Soft Landing
Meanwhile, please note my Hoot of the Day: The Fed Predicts an Immaculate Soft Landing
I review all of the jobs and unemployment data. The Fed predicts a soft landing. I don’t.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/home-builders-are-sitting-on-a-lot-of-supply-they-struggle-to-sell/
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