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Sunday, November 25, 2018

Millennials ditching cities for suburbs

A new report from Ernst & Young LLP., Research Now surveyed 1,202 adults aged 20 to 36 shows that millennials are fleeing big cities for suburban life.
When determining where to live, many millennials are now following the footsteps of their parents. In total, rent or own, 38% of millennials live in the suburbs, compared to 37% in the city.
Cathy Koch, EY’s Americas Tax Policy Leader, told CNBC that millennials are choosing suburbs over cities.
“It’s not just that they’re settling down as they get older, either,” Koch said.
“When looking at the very same age group today compared to two years ago, there’s an increase in the share of millennials living in the suburbs.”
“It was a surprise to me to see this generation increasingly choosing suburban locations to buy homes,” Koch said, but the trend at play makes sense: “The ‘suburbs’ may very well be smaller cities close to larger urban areas – these still afford the richness of city living (including employment opportunities) at maybe lower home prices.”
According to a recent report from Zillow, millennial home buyers can expect to pay 26.5% of their income to purchase a median-value home in a city, but only 20.2% of their income for a similar home in the suburbs.
Personal finances and student debt is likely the factor driving millennials out of big cities for regions that have a much lower cost of living.
More than 50% of millennials are currently paying off student debt (on average, Americans have $30,000 of student loan debt).
Millennials who majored in business have the least amount of student loans, but a large share of them have worthless humanities majors with low-paying gig-economy jobs.
Ernst & Young finds more millennials are buying homes in the last several years, but shows how student debt has delayed homebuying for many. This fragile generation is buying homes at a much lower rate than Gen Xers and Baby Boomers.
Student debt has not just delayed home buying, but also marriage and children for many.
Koch said the housing affordability crisis and rising interest rates would continue the trend of millennials exiting large cities into suburbs because of housing prices and the cost of living is just too expensive.
Into 2020, the acceleration of millennials leaving cities could jump, due to existing home sales topping out and inventory across the country coming online, forcing home prices much lower, which would entice 20 to 36-year-olds to gravitate to regions that housing prices are at bargain prices.

Borrowers Are Tapping Their Homes for Cash, Even as Rates Rise

Rising mortgage rates are crushing much of the refinancing market. But Americans are still using refis to pull cash out of their homes.
More than 80% of borrowers who refinanced in the third quarter chose the “cash out” option, withdrawing $14.6 billion in equity out of their homes, according to government-sponsored mortgage corporation Freddie Mac. That is the highest share of cash-out refis since 2007.
The trend attests to the current state of the U.S. economy, which is more than nine years into an expansion that has lifted home values sharply but raised worker pay at a much slower pace. Now, many are finding their homes to be a tappable source of wealth.
“Home equity is the big pot of gold,” said Sam Khater, the chief economist at Freddie Mac.
The increase is also a reminder of how rising mortgage rates are roiling the market. Higher rates, which make buying a home more expensive, are slowing down home sales. Rate-based refinancings, where a homeowner gets a lower rate on their mortgage, are also drying up, which has caused the higher proportion of cash-out refis. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.81%, according to data released Wednesday by Freddie Mac, up from 3.99% at the end of last year.
In a cash-out refi, a homeowner essentially trades in a mortgage for a new one with a larger principal balance. The borrower can then pay off the old mortgage and still pocket a chunk of cash. Lenders say that homeowners often use the cash for home renovations or to pay down other debt.
Mandy Whitworth of Dallas completed a cash-out refi a few months ago. She said she is happy that the roughly $75,000 in cash will let her pay for a home addition and pay off a credit card, even though she had to trade in a mortgage with a 3.625% interest rate for one with a 5.75% rate.
“From my standpoint, most people are cash-poor,” she said. “It’s an easy way to get access to the money.”
Cash-out refis played a big role in the decade-ago housing crisis, when many homeowners used their properties as ATMs just before home prices plunged. But the amount of cash homeowners are extracting now is far below precrisis levels, a sign that borrowers and lenders are more cautious this time around. In 2006, there were three straight quarters during which borrowers withdrew more than $80 billion.
Summer Garrett, a mortgage loan originator at Homebridge Financial Services Inc. in Dallas, said borrowers are showing more interest in cash-out refis as home prices continue to rise in the area, even though interest rates also are rising.
“Even with that higher interest rate, it is still less expensive than other avenues,” she said. The average rate on a credit card is nearly 18%, according to Bankrate.com, a personal finance website.
Still, some industry watchers worry the products could be marketed to homeowners who don’t understand them by lenders anxious to keep up loan volume in a cooling housing market.
“There are issuers that really want to make their profitability targets, ” said Michael Bright, chief operating officer of government-owned mortgage corporation Ginnie Mae. “The only way to do it is to convince borrowers to take cash out of their house.”
A homeowner who uses money from a cash-out refi to pay down other, higher-rate debt could still end up paying more in the long run. A borrower who trades in a 4% mortgage for a 5% mortgage might be able to pay off credit-card debt but could end up paying thousands of dollars more in interest over the life of the mortgage.
Borrowers who swap credit-card debt for mortgage debt are essentially trading unsecured debt for secured debt, where the repercussions for missing payments are much steeper. Borrowers who miss mortgage payments can end up in foreclosure. Also, if home prices fall, homeowners can end up owing more than their homes are worth, which happened to many borrowers in the financial crisis.
Mr. Bright said Ginnie Mae is “preparing to take additional steps” to ensure “that borrowers aren’t being solicited for refinancings that don’t make sense.”
Ian Young, a cybersecurity architect who lives in Huntsville, Ala., did a cash-out refi in 2016, pulling $50,000 out of his home to cover the cost of renovations and pay down student loans. Since then, he has incurred more debt from pursuing another degree. But even though the value of his house has increased, he decided against another cash-out refi.
“I would rather keep the mortgage low enough that I could still sell the house and move,” he said.
Nonetheless, some borrowers find cash-out refis attractive. Jameson Wildwood, a software engineer in North Carolina, did a cash-out refi over the summer on an investment property he owns in Sacramento, Calif. He used the approximately $31,000 he pocketed to make another real-estate investment.
“I think the market, especially in California and other areas, has increased a lot, so there’s a lot of equity that active investors can use to make more investments,” he said. “For me, it was a great way of putting those funds to work.”

Friday, November 23, 2018

Blackrock’s Results Are A Warning To The Real Estate Investment Sector

The recent headlines in the financial press regarding the sharp fall in the value of Blackrock shares (Blackrock: a vast money machine splutters – FT 19/10/2018) may seem like distant thunder to many in the UK commercial real estate sector but the implications for the sector could be very real indeed.
Chart 1 – BlackRock Inc. – US$ Share Price – 6 Months to 24/10/2018 (Source: Bloomberg 24/10/2018)
According to the FT, BlackRock’s long-term net flows – a measure of how much money investors are handing it, excluding more short-term volatile cash management vehicles – dropped to US$10.6bn in 3Q2018. If you include all flows then this means that BlackRock effectively suffered its first quarterly investor withdrawal since the market crash of August 2015.
Inevitably the root cause was cited as unstable financial markets and nervous investors – i.e. this was just a “temporary setback”. So, nothing to be concerned about?
That may be part of the reason but on closer inspection the picture is a potentially a lot more complicated than that. Leaving aside the fact that financial markets ARE highly volatile right now and investors ARE justifiably nervous the global fund management industry is undergoing something of a fundamental restructuring. One of the key drivers of change is the intensifying pressure on fees from cheap index tracking funds which have sucked in hundred of billions of dollars since 2008. Not only has this created a race to the bottom – Fidelity recently launched the first free index tracking fund – it has also highlighted how much investors have historically paid for active strategies and other specialist vehicles such as real estate.
According to the Investment Company Institute, the average costs of US bond and equity funds has fallen from 0.76% and 0.99% of AUM in 2000 to 0.48% and 0.59% of AUM in 2017. The reason for this of course is technology. Put simply, passive investment strategies can be delivered by computers and algorithms which don’t need high salaries, office space and personal pension pots. They are happy and able to deliver stable attractive risk adjusted returns by using the available market data to formulate investment decisions.
Chart 2 – Cumulative flows into passive vs. active funds (US$mn) – 2009 to 1H 2017 (Source: Strategic Insight SimFund, BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy0
The commercial real estate sector has largely ignored the noise coming from equity and bond markets in this regard. Indeed, many asset managers have deliberately targeted real estate and other real assets in recent years precisely because they are fundamentally active investment strategies that require specialist skills and highly localised market knowledge. In short this means they can charge higher fees to investors.
So, what’s the problem?
Well it can probably be best described as the “real estate investment market information deficit”. Even the most rudimentary analysis of the commercial real estate sector would reveal that the term “property market” is a misnomer. There is no functioning market or universal pricing mechanism as each transaction is unique and the market is only created at a point in time between the buyer and seller. Compare this with equity and bond markets where the “price” is a function of multiple sources of “live” demand. More importantly there is no “inside information” so all parties invest based on regulated disclosure of information.
Many see this “information deficit” in the real estate sector as the opportunity. In most cases investors are asked to invest blind into a property fund without any detailed knowledge of the true risk/return on offer. The industry uses subjective terms like “core”, “core plus”, “value-added” or “opportunistic” without any reference to any empirical evidence supporting the risk-return trade off.
Ask a property fund manager for a detailed breakdown of the assets in the fund, their performance history, projected returns, the credit rating of the tenants and the projected cashflows and you will often be met with a black stare or worse. In most cases, disclosure is avoided because it’s seen as losing an advantage but the reality for many funds is that they simply don’t know the answers to those questions and compiling the data could take several weeks to achieve. This inability to access data and analyse it in any meaningful way lies at the heart of the “information deficit” in the property sector. While that may look like an advantage to the fund manager it is not necessarily in the best interests of the investor or market liquidity in general. Indeed, it’s this lack of information that has perpetuated the “Arthur Daley” image of the property industry with some institutional investors.
So what needs to change and why?
Firstly, the real estate investment fund management industry needs to realise that just like equity and bond fund managers that they are in the data business and NOT the property business. The real estate is simply a means of recycling the capital to achieve a required target return. It is not an end in itself. Ergo they are selling market knowledge and expertise to their clients so a detailed knowledge of their portfolio, tenants and the markets in which they are invested is the most important asset they possess.
Secondly, in a world of rapid technological change real estate fund managers are competing for the attention of asset allocators against equities, fixed income and other alternatives. Allocation decisions will increasingly be driven by computers and algorithms not human intervention. If the data on the sector is not available or simply not fit for purpose, then real estate will simply not get an invitation to the ball.
Thirdly, fees in the real estate sector will continue to come under pressure, so property fund managers need to find a way to reduce costs and streamline their business processes. A great deal can be achieved by reducing time to market for reporting and the management of data assets. Other sectors have already been through this process and reaped the rewards by effective use of technology.
While the technology issues shaking up asset managers in the equity and bond markets may look like someone else’s problem the real estate industry needs to be thinking very carefully about the long-term implications for its own market. The last crisis showed us that all markets are inter-related and changes in one tend to ripple through into others, sometime in unexpected ways.
While the very nature of the sector precludes the emergence of passive investment strategies the lack of disclosure could prevent the real estate fund management industry as a whole from having a seat at the table when asset allocation decisions are made further up the chain of command.
It would be a shame if the sector missed out on its share of global investment flows simply because of poor data management.

Tax break to hasten gentrification? Opportunity Zones may miss target

In mid-November, a Chicago-based private equity firm with an eye on underserved neighborhoods raised $105 million from 425 investors — in just 17 hours.
Around the same time and about a hundred miles away, Milwaukee officials were meeting to discuss what they hope is an influx of money from a fresh wave of investors for badly needed city improvement projects.
The two parties’ paths might never have crossed. But now, a productive match is a real possibility thanks to a new tax scheme known as Opportunity Zones. The program was tucked into the federal tax legislation passed late last year. It offers big tax shelter incentives to investors in qualified Opportunity Zones, officially designated areas in low-income communities that would otherwise struggle to attract capital.
While the opportunities the program represents are clear to some participants, analysts and advocates around the country say there are very real questions about how effective it may be as a tool to broaden housing access and spur economic development, or whether it may, in fact, be detrimental to the needy communities it sets out to serve.

“I tend to be fairly skeptical about tax incentives that are targeted to really specific locations,” said Jenny Schuetz, an economist and fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution.
“We have a fair amount of evidence from past programs like enterprise zones and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program that when you outline a specific geography, you tend to shift activity but you don’t necessarily increase net overall activity,” Schuetz said. “It just relocates capital.”
Even more critically, according to many observers, is that it’s really hard to find communities that are stable enough to make investors happy, but needy enough to qualify for the program’s infusions of cash and other resources.
“You don’t want to pick an area that’s already gentrifying,” Schuetz told MarketWatch. “It’s unfortunately also true that if you give incentives to a really distressed location, like [parts of] Detroit or Cleveland, it doesn’t seem to help much. The trick is to find a place that’s on the cusp.”
Many housing-watchers also think that the idea of targeting resources to a place, rather than the people in it, may sound good, but isn’t likely to be effective.
Julia Gordon is executive vice president of the National Community Stabilization Trust, an organization founded in the wake of the housing crisis to eliminate blight and mitigate the effects of vacant homes on municipalities. She thinks that investors tapping Opportunity Zone funds are more likely to gravitate toward real estate plays in distressed communities, simply because they’re a more straightforward way of investing than, say, education. “But if what you’re trying to do is get broad economic development happening in these areas, housing is critical but so are other things, whether jobs or infrastructure,” Gordon said.
As Schuetz puts it, “people-based investments” are usually more successful because they’re more targeted. Poor people in a particular area may need jobs, or job-training skills, or they may need better housing programs. But giving money — or tax breaks — to intermediaries with the hope that some benefits will trickle down rarely works, she thinks.
‘You don’t want to pick an area that’s already gentrifying… [T]he trick is to find a place that’s on the cusp.’
Jenny Schuetz of the Brookings Institution
Some city officials may think otherwise. In Milwaukee, any investment is good investment, according to Martha Brown, the city’s deputy development director. Like many Rust Belt communities, Milwaukee struggles with an overhang of vacant properties — both commercial and residential — at the same time that it’s trying to counter an affordable housing crisis.

Brown ticked off a long list of projects that had been designated as Opportunity Zone-ready: a large shopping mall on the far northwest side of town that’s now “largely vacant,” an industrial corridor and multiple abandoned factory properties, undeveloped tracts near the airport and vacant former public schools that might be re-purposed for housing.
It’s going to require city resources both to publicize the investment opportunities and to make conditions suitable for investors, by offering re-zoning or other rule tweaks, Brown said, but Milwaukee city officials are excited about the possibility of increased investment funds. “We think there’s a lot of opportunity,” she said.
It’s worth noting that not all government officials see development as necessarily positive. Local leaders and incoming members of Congress have slammed the decision to bring another Amazon AMZN, -0.97%  headquarters to New York’s Long Island City, an area already on the gentrification upswing.
But generally, a sense of excitement is palpable, according to Don Hinkle-Brown, president and CEO of Reinvestment Fund, a community development financial institution that lends to affordable housing developers, among other projects.
“This is arriving at a moment when impact investing and a different way of managing money is catching on. I’m hoping that is harnessable,” he said.
To be sure, Hinkle-Brown also has concerns, particularly about patchy development efforts and gentrification. “This is an unplanned firehose of money that could be connected to a community. There may be speculation. That’s some of the worst stuff that can happen — nothing changes hands because everyone’s waiting. Prices go up in anticipation of development that hasn’t happened yet.”

(To quantify that “firehose,” the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank whose work was influential in helping develop the policy that made it into the legislation, estimates that there is $6 trillion in unrealized capital gains that could be fodder for Opportunity Zone funds.)
But Hinkle-Brown thinks there’s potential for a mismatch between the eager money and the projects that need to be done. They likely have different time horizons, risk tolerances and financial profiles, and probably aren’t used to working together. IRS rules are still being finalized. And more critically, incoming funds will be equity, and most infrastructure-like assets are generally financed with debt.
Yet another criticism of the program is that it has no provision for monitoring work that’s being done under the Opportunity Zone name, nor outcomes that emerge. As that “firehose” of money deluges local communities, it may create more work for local advocacy groups and the news media to document and analyze what’s going on, at a moment when both types of institutions are themselves resource-starved. And even if it’s possible to offer a lens on some individual communities, that won’t provide systematic data, Schuetz noted.
“There’s a good chance we will have no data on effectiveness,” Schuetz said.
‘This is arriving at a moment when impact investing and a different way of managing money is catching on. I’m hoping that is harnessable.’
Don Hinkle-Brown, president and CEO of Reinvestment Fund
There are probably already unintended consequences trickling through the economy, a variation of the speculation wave Hinkle-Brown expects, Julia Gordon said. She has heard from one legal aid lawyer about a surge in the number of tax foreclosures being suddenly rushed through court to free up available investment properties in a designated Opportunity Zone, for example.

And while many advocates say Opportunity Zones could line the pockets of rent-seekers in distressed communities while doing little to solve local problems, Gordon sees something even more ominous for the housing market.
“My concern is that Opportunity Zones turbo-charge the wave of properties transitioning to rental,” Gordon said. That would crystallize two big post-crisis trends: massive numbers of owner-occupied homes becoming rentals, and the surge of institutional investors into what was traditionally a mom-and-pop business, with a mixed track record.
“If you’re really going to develop healthy neighborhoods, broad-based homeownership is a critical part of that,” Gordon told MarketWatch. “It’s possible that as this program develops, new regulations or changes to the statutes will enable it to support homeownership, but now it’s hard to see how that works.”
While many funds are already soliciting money, some are waiting for more guidance. And given Hinkle-Brown’s concerns about money matching up to needs, it may be no surprise that he believes “this will not be a credit that will see the most meaningful mission stuff immediately.”

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

What you need to know about converting a 2-bedroom apartment to 3 bedrooms

You need a real three-bedroom apartment in NYC and you can’t afford to buy one. A more affordable option is a two bedroom that can be converted into a three bedroom, but the process is somewhat involved. In this week’s Buy Curious, Michael Eisenberg of Citi Habitats, Claire Groome of Warburg Realty, and Brad Malow of Compass tell you exactly which layouts to seek out, what permit you’ll need, and how much it’ll all cost.

The question:

We don’t think we’ll be able to swing a three bedroom for our growing family, so we’ve been thinking about buying a two bedroom and converting it into a three bedroom. How hard is it to do? What layouts should we look for? What else is involved?

The reality:

Adding a legal bedroom to your home can increase a unit’s value and make it suit your specific needs, Eisenberg says. But it can also reduce the size of your home’s common space and make the floorplan more “choppy” and less spacious since the square footage for the bedroom has to come from somewhere.
“Make sure the bedroom leaves enough space for someone to comfortably live there and is within NYC code,” he says. “Don’t try and cut corners or do any unpermitted work to your apartment.”
Also, just because you find a nook or alcove in an apartment doesn’t automatically mean it will be an extra, legal bedroom. You should know that legal bedrooms need a minimum of 80 square feet and no dimension can be less than 8 feet. To learn more, check out Brick Underground, “What is a legal bedroom in NYC.”

What are the best layouts to look for?

Eisenberg recommends looking for apartments that are “more rectangular or square in shape and have many windows.” An apartment with a large open living area that can be cordoned off is also key, as long as it is big enough.
Groome advises considering prewar classic-six type apartments. “These two-bedroom apartments come with maid’s rooms that can easily be turned into a bedroom, nursery, or office,” she says.
For Malow, multiple windows are what you want “for the best bang for your buck.” So a large room with multiple windows is your best bet for yielding an additional bedroom, he says. Also consider your ability to build a standard-sized closet while still having ample bedroom space, being able to fit at minimum a queen-sized bed, and having heating and cooling capabilities in the space.
The location of the bathroom is crucial, Eisenberg says. “Ideally, it’s already positioned in a foyer, existing hallway, or other common area—and won’t need to be moved to accommodate new walls.” That would potentially add thousands to a budget.
Groome would also make sure that there’s either a closet in the converted area or room for one to be built.

Where should you look?

That really depends on budget. After all, you’re looking for apartments that are big enough in terms of square footage to become three bedrooms. You might be inclined to look for a loft in Tribeca—but the days of being able to buy raw, unfinished space are long gone. That neighborhood has the priciest real estate in the city, and lofts in Soho, the Village and Chelsea are a similar story.
You’ll want to aim your search at prewar co-op apartments. They have more generous layouts that have real dining rooms that may lend themselves to bedroom conversions. Check out the Upper East and West side of Manhattan.
New condos are designed to use space more efficiently—for example a living room that doubles as a dining room, so there’s potential for flexible space that can be turned into a bedroom.
Of course, getting a renovation plan approved by a co-op board can require you to jump through many hurdles—for many, this is an aggravating process.

What steps will you need to take?

You’ll need to know if your co-op or condo board allows bedroom conversions, and then for them to sign off on your plan—especially if you’re looking into breaking down walls and reconfiguring a space. Check out Brick Underground’s “Renovating a co-op? How to get your plans past the board.”
For that you’ll need to hire an architect, Eisenberg says. “They can give you great ideas as to how to lay out the wall that would give you the best chance to make the apartment feel most comfortable. It’s important to factor in where the bed will be placed, where the door will go, where the closet will go, etc.”
Altering the layout of your apartment requires a permit from the Department of Buildings, and to get a permit, your architect has to submit plans to the DOB for approval, and use a registered and insured contractor to perform the work.
The architect will then submit plans for the renovation to the board, who will send them to their consulting engineer and architect for feedback. “It’s likely that they will have questions and comments—it’s a back and forth process,” he says. The architect will also guide you through the process with the Department of Buildings.

Which permit will you need?

According to Eisenberg, you’ll usually you need to file an Alteration Type 2 form with the Department of Buildings to add a bedroom to an existing apartment.
“This process can take from a few weeks to several months—depending on the scope of the work,” he says.

How much will such an undertaking cost?

That all depends on the complexity of the project, how much the architect and contractor charge, and how much any permits cost.
Malow says that an architect’s involvement can add anywhere from $10,000 to $25,000 to the job. “Add that to your contractor quote and building fees, and you may be looking at upwards of $20,000,” he says.
For simpler projects, Groome says that it should cost approximately $5,000 to erect a wall, and an additional few thousand to build a closet (if needed).

How long will this entire process take?

“Allowing for time to design the space, obtain board approval, and the gathering of permits, I would allow up to a year for the process from start to finish,” Eisenberg says. “Results may vary.”
Check out these two-bedroom apartments that could potentially be made into three-bedroom apartments:

406 East 73rd St., #PH5F, Lenox Hill

This 1,250-square-foot, two-bedroom, two-bath penthouse duplex (also pictured above) has high ceilings, hardwood floors, exposed brick, a working wood-burning fireplace, an open living/dining room. The kitchen has granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. There’s also central air, and a washer and dryer. A third bedroom could potentially be created in the dining space. It’s in a pet-friendly boutique co-op building with a roof deck that allows co-purchasing, guarantors, and gifting. It’s listed for $1,199,000. Maintenance is $2,273 a month.

201 East 79th St., Apt 6D, Upper East Side

Listed for $1,675,000, this 1,400-square-foot, corner two-bedroom, two-bath co-op has large closets and has been freshly repaired and painted. It has a separate dining area that could potentially be converted to a third bedroom. It’s in a co-op building with fully rented retail that’s generating income, a garage, and an elevator. A washer and dryer are allowed with board approval. Maintenance is $2,217 a month.

31 West 70th St., #10, Upper West Side

Features of this $2,200,000 two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath duplex include high ceilings, exposed brick, two wood-burning fireplaces, a recently renovated kitchen with a dishwasher and a garbage disposal, three storage lofts, California closets throughout, a full-floor master suite, an in-unit washer and dryer, and a 1,000-square-foot private terrace. The formal dining area may make a good third bedroom. It’s in a walk-up co-op building that allows subletting and pets (with no size or weight restrictions), as well as pieds-à-terre. Maintenance is $2,664 a month.

15 Hubert St., #3B, Tribeca

Listed for $4,795,000, this 2,316-square-foot two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath condo has wide-plank solid wood floors, large windows, custom lighting, a chef’s kitchen with white oak cabinetry, marble countertops, and stainless steel appliances, a large living and dining room area, an additional room that separates the bedrooms and living area that can be used as an office or another bedroom, and custom walk-in closets in both bedrooms. A tenant is already in place. This is for investors only. It’s in a boutique condo building. Common charges are $2,081 a month. Taxes are $2,917 a month.

1111 Park Ave., #10C, Carnegie Hill

Listed for $2,395,000, this two-bedroom, three-bath co-op has hardwood floors throughout, a wood-burning fireplace, lots of closets, and two bedrooms—both with private en suite baths. There’s also a maid’s room that can serve as a third bedroom. It’s in a full-service co-op building with a full-time doorman, a concierge, a live-in super, a fitness room, bike storage, and a storage unit. Maintenance is $3,495 a month.

Sunday, November 18, 2018

US Summer Hotel Occupancy Saw Second-Largest Drop Since Recession

For the first time since Q3 2016, growth in quarterly demand for hotel rooms in the US has dropped; in fact, posting the second largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis, alarm bells are going off across their leisure and hospitality industry.
To be sure, some of  the decline in Q3 2018 occupancy can be explained by unfavorable comps to Q3 2017 when hurricanes struck markets in Florida and Texas, according to data from real estate investment firm CBRE.
Houston, which experienced a devastating strike by Hurricane Harvey in 3Q 2017, had the most significant occupancy drop (11%) of any US city, according to CBRE. However, the data revealed that occupancy weakness was not only centered in Texas and Florida, but there were widespread slowdowns in the Midwest and East Coast cities such as Indianapolis, Charleston, Kansas City, and Washington, DC.
CBRE said some hotels had declining traffic as average daily rates for these cities cratered year-over-year. Revenue per available room also dropped in 18 of the 60 markets CBRE monitors, almost doubled from Q2 2018.
In a separate report, top US hotel groups reported weaker than expected 3Q 2018 US growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR), causing some concern that a domestic slowdown is imminent.
Marriott International posted North American RevPAR growth of just 0.6% for 3Q 2018. By comparison, Marriott saw RevPAR grow 1.9% worldwide over the same period.
“The surprise and disappointment for us in the third quarter was purely about U.S. RevPAR performance in September,” which was down 1% for the month, said Marriott president and CEO Arne Sorenson. “It had an impact on third-quarter RevPAR [in North America], and it does affect our expectations for the fourth quarter.”
Hyatt Hotels reported a 1.1% decline in RevPAR in the US for 3Q 2018 but said globally – RevPAR jumped 2.8%.
Patrick Grismer, Hyatt’s then-CFO, told investors on a call in October that the company “did see better performance out of our international owned and leased properties from a RevPAR growth perspective than we did for our U.S.-based owned and leased hotels.”
Grismer, who has since left the company to become CFO at Starbucks, added that Hyatt expects “the U.S. will be a bit softer” in 2019.
Hilton also said 3Q 2018 domestic RevPAR growth is slowing down, as its international markets were doing better. The company reported a relatively modest US rise of 1%, while Hilton’s total RevPAR was up 2% globally in the quarter.
Hilton president and CEO Chris Nassetta said, “while one market is slowing — in this case, the U.S. — all of our international markets continue to pick up.” That pick up, however, won’t last long if China’s economy indeed enter contraction as many expect it will.
If the disappointing hotel data was not enough to suggest a 2019 slowdown is assured, recently the US Travel Association warnedin a new report that US domestic travel is about to “level off” after achieving 105 straight months of overall expansion. The report indicated a “perfect storm” of factors is brewing that is currently suppressing international demand for travel to the US.
The organization noticed a strong dollar had been one of the significant factors in deterring foreigners from visiting. Another issue presented, in the report, is the global slowdown and political uncertainties in Asia, Europe, and Latin America spurred by the trade war.
“We’re seeing something of a perfect storm of factors that could suppress international demand for travel to the U.S.,” said David Huether, U.S. Travel senior vice president for research. “The U.S. dollar has been on another very robust strengthening trend since April of this year, while the global economy has been cooling off considerably overall. That, coupled with political uncertainty in Europe and rising trade tensions, is a bad-news recipe for inbound travel.”

Saturday, November 17, 2018

Cal. Wildfire Sparks New Housing Crisis

As California fire officials continue to battle the state’s deadliest blaze, a new crisis has emerged; tens of thousands of evacuees are now homeless and struggling to survive in freezing conditions with a storm expected to roll in on Wednesday. California officials estimated earlier in the week that 50,000 people had been evacuated from the fire-ravaged Paradise region, and over 1,000 are currently in sanctioned shelters.
Making things worse, norovirus has broken out in at least three evacuation shelters, requiring isolation tents to try and contain its spread.
As the Sacramento Bee notes – “the situation is growing worse with each passing day.”
This is on an order of magnitude beyond what we thought was one of the worst disaster recoveries we would be faced with,” said Kelly Huston, deputy director of governor Jerry Brown’s Office of Emergency Services.
After the Camp Fire erased most of the town of Paradise, destroying more than 9,800 residences, emergency services officials are dealing with what some say is an escalating humanitarian crisis with no quick solutions. Some evacuees will be able to return to unburned homes. Most, now hunkered in hotels, staying with family and friends, or stuck in evacuation centers or unauthorized camps, have no home to return to, and are left wondering where their future lies. –Sacramento Bee
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Justin Michaels
✔@JMichaelsNews
26,000 are homeless in , CA. 9,700 homes, 290 buildings destroyed, 15,500 structures still threatened. 63 have died, 631 still missing. The  is the largest/deadliest wildfire in CA history. The tragedy has no end. @weatherchannel is reporting from Paradise.
“Wallywood”
Many residents have turned to makeshift communities where sanitation and safety are top concerns. In particular, hundreds of evacuees have been squatting at a camp in a Walmart parking lot, “a ramshackle village some inhabitants call Wallywood, a sardonic mash-up of their location and reduced circumstances,” reports the Bee.
“I just want to be safe and happy and in a home,” says 57-year-old Wallywood resident DeAnn Miller, who was homeless for a year before moving into a Paradise mobile home three months ago.
“I need my home back,” said Miller, disheveled and standing next to someone else’s bucket of urine.
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Marcus Yam 火
✔@yamphoto
The wait for Paradise: From young to old, evacuees displaced by the  endure another restless & cold night in their cars, container trucks & tents, at the Walmart parking lot in Chico, Calif. http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-fires-woolsey-hill-camp-griffith-park-live-updates-htmlstory.html 
Officials pull together
On Friday afternoon, the Butte County Board of Supervisors held an emergency meeting, voting to open large shelters in order to consolidate Camp Fire evacuees who are currently spread throughout six shelters – mostly in churches. The problem, reports the Bee, is that the shelters are up to 30 miles apart, making it more difficult for the county to provide medical, law enforcement, food, clothing and other services.
“Because they’re scattered all over, it’s so much more difficult to provide those services to them,” said Butte County Supervisor Bill Connelly. “We need to be able to house them, clothe them, give them sanitation, medical care, help them with paperwork. We have rain coming so our immediate need is to consolidate our evacuees in to areas we can provide that.
State lawmakers in Sacramento said on Friday that they will look for money to help rebuild, as well as find ways to build cheap and fast housing – such as mobile homes.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) crews working out of Cal OES headquarters in Sacramento say they have registered 10,000 people in need of help, and have an office open in the former Sears building in the town of Chico to register evacuees. Those who had to flee the fire are being given rental housing vouchers, grants for rebuilding their homes, low-interest loans and other charity-based aid programs, said spokesman Michael Hart.
The first step, Huston said, is to “at least get you into something where you can settle and then you can make some good decisions about what your future looks like.” The massive scope of the problem is forcing government to look farther away to find space to house people. That includes turning to private industry, such as the short-term rental company Airbnb.
County officials said they face a problem that could have ramifications in communities beyond the immediate area.
“Big picture, we have 6,000, possibly 7,000 households who have been displaced and who realistically don’t stand a chance of finding housing again in Butte County,” county housing official Mayer said. “I don’t even know if these households can be absorbed in California.” –Sacramento Bee
The county can place 800 – 1000 households in permanent residences, said Mayer, as Butte County housing was already in a crunch before the deadly Camp Fire – with a vacancy rate less than 2% which “is considered a crisis state,” added Mayer.
As of Saturday morning, the death toll in the Camp Fire stood at 71, making it the deadliest fire in California state history. Meanwhile, over 1,000 people remain unaccounted for. The blaze is currently 55% contained and has scorched 148,000 acres.
California Senator Dianne Feinstein on Friday said that she will help to ensure that “all necessary resources are available,” for the rehousing of now-homeless evacuees. “As we move into the recovery phase, it’s important to know that federal funds are available now to help wildfire victims with their immediate needs. Those affected should register with FEMA as soon as possible to begin receiving aid,” Feinstein said in a statement.
“Our housing dollars are scarce, but clearly our hearts go out to the fire victims,” said California Assemblyman David Chiu, a San Francisco Democrat who chairs the Assembly housing committee. “I think there would be significant support for assisting with the development of housing and particularly affordable housing in those areas.”
Lawmakers are discussing using modular housing, which can facilitate cheaper and faster construction, to rebuild fire-torn areas, he said. He also thinks they should consider streamlining housing production in those areas by reducing regulations that can slow building. And he said it’s possible the Legislature will allocate money to help rebuild. –Sacramento Bee
Evacuees, meanwhile, say they don’t want to move for the sake of moving if there isn’t a long-term housing solution in place. Officials made their way through Wallywood Friday, passing out gas cards, offering transportation to people, and letting residents know of the new shelter options.
Walmart spokeswoman Tiffany Wilson said the company is concerned for public welfare in a statement to The Bee. “While we are happy to have been able to provide an immediate place of escape from the wildfire, we understand that our parking lots are not a viable long-term housing solution and are working closely with the American Red Cross, the county and local organizations to best preserve the health and safety of those impacted by the Camp Fire.
Tammy Mezera, 49, moved to Paradise just a few months ago to be close to her son, who lives in Magalia. She said the initial shock of of the fire has warn off, and now she wants to now whether officials will help her get a permanent place to live.
Mezera was sitting in a canvas camping chair near a donated tent. Her 6-month-old pit bull Nel chewed on a bone. A small white New Testament was on a table in front of her. A case of Spam and bags of pretzels were on the ground next to her. –Sacramento Bee
This is not a viable option, but they’re not giving us another option besides another temporary situation,” she said. “We’ve created a community from a community destroyed. Now you’re going to displace people again.