Once one of the country’s biggest growth drivers, China’s property market has been in a downward spiral for four years with no signs of abating. Real estate values continue to plummet, households in financial distress are being forced to sell properties, and apartment developers that racked up enormous debt on speculative projects are on the brink of collapse.
There was some optimism that government measures to end the crisis had been working to reinvigorate the market, but in March,government-linked developer China Vanke Co. reported a record 49.5 billion yuan ($6.8 billion) annual loss for 2024, showing just how deep the problems run. Then in August, property giant China Evergrande Group delisted from the Hong Kong stock exchange — making the shares effectively worthless — marking a grim milestone for the nation’s property sector.
For the first time since 2012, a majority of homes in the U.S. have depreciated.
Just over half of homes in the U.S. – 53% to be exact – have lost value over the past 12 months, according to a new report by Zillow.
Of the major metro areas, Denver homes got hit hardest. Ninety-one percent of properties in the city have lost property value over the past year.
Things aren’t much better in Austin, where 89% of homes have lost value. In Sacramento, California, the number is 88%, while Phoenix and Dallas are tied at 87%.
The trend holds true for dozens of cities, especially out West and across the South. Nearly every market in Florida saw most homes depreciate since 2024. Homes in the Northeast and Midwest, meanwhile, are holding their value better. A much smaller percentage of homes in Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York lost value.
Use the interactive map below to explore where homes are losing value. You can also see more data from Zillow here.
Home prices have been softening across much of the U.S. following the craziness of pandemic buying and selling. Mortgage rates have also risen since the historic lows they reached during peak pandemic, which has weakened people’s purchasing power. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been stuck above 6% since September 2022.
Despite the drops of the past year, the vast majority of homes have appreciated since the last time they changed hands. Only 6% of homes are worth less now than the last time they sold.
But in a few cities, especially where there was a big pandemic home-buying boom, a larger share of homes would sell for less if they hit the market today. In Little Rock, Arkansas; Austin, Texas; Cape Coral, Florida; and North Port, Florida, more than a tenth of homes are valued 5% (or more) lower than their last sale price, according to Zillow’s estimates.
The scheme would grant “qualified” insiders an effective veto on the sale of already “distressed” residential buildings by imposing a six-month “right of first refusal” period on owners and buyers.
Say you own a three-family rental property, and want to sell it: Under this “Community Opportunity to Purchase Act,” you must announce your intent to put your property up for sale at a listed price and then waitsix months— subject to extensions — to see if a city-approved nonprofit outfit wants to buy it by matching that price.
Only then can you make the building “available for sale in the public market.”
This madness means huge headaches for sellers, and would drive investors to look anywhere else: No responsible party will put up with the hassles and delays.
Families who inherit property often have to sell to pay taxes and divide estates; this six-month holding period imposes obvious hardship.
Cue the complete cratering of values of already distressed properties — which is probably the goal of the legislation in the first place.
That is: Insane state laws already have masses of apartment buildings underwater all across town; this is a bid to force owners to sell at even more of a loss.
With mortgage rates tumbling, housing market participants have been disappointed by the lack of enthusiasm by homebuyers to apply for mortgages (though there was a decent bounce in refi activity)...
Source: Bloomberg
This morning's existing home sales data (admittedly for October) will give us a further glimpse into the reality oh home-buying vs home-selling as the gap between current mortgage rates and the average existing mortgage rates remains vast...
Source: Bloomberg
Analysts (rightfully, given the shift in rates) expected a bounce, albeit tiny (+0.5%), in existing home sales for October and were surprised to the upside with a 1.2% MoM rise...
Source: Bloomberg
Which lifted the home sales SAAR a little more off record lows (to eight month highs)...
Source: Bloomberg
This print represents signings - so when sales probably went through from August and September (before rates really started to decline).
“Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Is momentum about to start picking up?
The median sales price gained 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200, furthering a run of year-over-year price increases dating back to mid-2023.
Last month, the supply of previously owned homes for sale fell 0.7% to 1.52 million, still near its highest level since mid-2020, NAR data show.
Homes remained on market 34 days last month, the longest stretch for any October since 2019, Yun said on a conference call.
But to get back to pre-Covid levels, “it requires drastically larger supply,” Yun said.
“We’re not seeing that. And much more meaningful decline in mortgage rates.”
In the NAR report, sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, increased 0.5%, marking the strongest rate since February.
Sales in the West fell 1.3%, while sales were flat in the Northeast. The Midwest led US regions with a 5.3% sales gain.
Nationwide, sellers outnumbered buyers last month by about 500,000, giving the latter some power to demand discounts and other concessions, Redfin estimated in a separate report this month.
China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system, according to people familiar with the matter.
Policymakers including the housing ministry are considering a slew of options, such as providing new homebuyers mortgage subsidies for the first time nationwide, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Other measures being floated include raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers and lowering home transaction costs, one of the people said.
Sleek new designs for future city sidewalk sheds were unveiled by Mayor Eric Adams on Tuesday — and the improved versions are so drastic, you may not be able to tell they’re temporary structures.
The modern replacements will sub out Gotham’s long-despised dingy sidewalk scaffolding to hopefully enhance city street aesthetics while also boosting pedestrian safety, proponents said.
“Today marks a major step forward in our mission to reimagine New York City’s streetscape,” Adams said in a statement.
This newly designed “Baseline Shed” has a transparent roof to allow light on the sidewalk below.Practice for Architecture and Urbanism
“For too long, outdated and cumbersome sidewalk sheds have blocked sunlight, hurt small businesses, and cluttered our neighborhoods,” he said.
The new versions of the sheds, crafted by city architecture and design firms Arup and Practice for Architecture and Urbanism, will be used at construction projects and buildings undergoing facade work as early as next year.
PAU’s so-called “Baseline Shed” involves a transparent roof angled upward to let light onto the sidewalk.
The “Wide Baseline Shed” is suited for wide sidewalks and major thoroughfares.Practice for Architecture and Urbanism
The firm’s lightweight “Speed Shed,” for short-term work including emergency repairs, has a similar angled roof with netting.
The firm’s third design, the “Wide Baseline Shed,” is a heavy-duty model for wide sidewalks and major thoroughfares and features columns spaced far apart.
The lightweight “Speed Shed” will be used for short-term work including emergency repairs.Practice for Architecture and Urbanism
Arup’s models include the light-duty, balcony-inspired “Air Shed” completely lifted off the ground and anchored into a building for facade repair and window-replacement projects.
The firm’s the lightweight “Flex Shed” can be modified around street signs, bus stop shelters and unique building structures.
Its “Rigid Shed” will meanwhile be used for heavy-duty, major repair work that involves tower cranes and high-rise construction.
The “Rigid Shed” will be used for heavy-duty, major repair work that involve tower cranes and high-rise construction.Arup, KNE studio, Core, and Reddymade
The two firms were hired in February 2024 to develop the “innovative designs” and improve the current shed model — which is a frequent “source of frequent public complaints,” City Hall said.
Sidewalk sheds are mandated under the city’s building code and erected to protect pedestrians from potential falling debris near building repair and construction sites — but the green blights have also posed public safety and crime concerns.
The development comes as the latest installment of the mayor’s years-long Get Sheds Down Initiative, which has brought down more than 400 long-standing sheds since July 2023 — including ones on city streets for nearly two decades.
The light-duty, balcony-inspired “Air Shed” will be completely lifted off the ground and anchored into a building for facade repair and window replacement projects.Arup, KNE studio, Core, and Reddymade
The lightweight “Flex Shed” that can be modified around street signs, bus stop shelters and unique building structures.Arup, KNE studio, Core, and Reddymade
Through a joint study last year with Mastercard, the Adams administration found that sidewalk sheds can cost Manhattan businesses $3,900 to $9,500 in consumer spending each month.
Registered design professionals will be able to get permits to use the new shed plans through the same permitting process employed for the old hunter green pipe-and-plywood eyesores.
