Unemployment, Affordability, Foreclosures Shape Q3 2025 Housing Market Risk

 Wisconsin counties lead with some of the least at-risk housing markets; Ongoing market pressures seen in parts of California, Louisiana, and Florida

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2025.

The report shows that 16 of the 50 highest risk markets were in California, followed by nine in New Jersey, four in Florida, and three each in Arizona and Texas. Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosure rates, and county unemployment rates.

The third quarter saw the national median home price rise to a record high of $375,00 and affordability continued to be a primary concern in many parts of the country.

Covering the purchase and monthly costs of a median priced home would have required at least half of the typical county resident’s annual wages in 19.8 percent (115) of the 580 counties with sufficient data to analyze. And in 63.1 percent (366) of the counties, a median priced home required at least a third of the typical resident’s wages.

“A lot of attention has, deservedly, gone to affordability concerns stemming from the rising price of homes,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “But what really separated the riskiest markets in our third quarter assessment were their high rates of foreclosures and unemployment.”

“If a community is losing jobs, those homeowners will find it harder to pay their monthly mortgage bills,” he added. “That means more foreclosures, which can hurt the broader local housing market.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.

The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 580 counties around the United States, excluding Connecticut and Colorado, with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2025. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

California counties top riskiest list

The counties with the riskiest housing markets in ATTOM’s analysis were Butte County, CA; Humboldt County, CA; Charlotte County, FL; Shasta County, CA; and El Dorado County, CA.

The five counties all had unemployment rates at or above 5.1 percent and at least one foreclosure for every 806 homes.

Wisconsin leads with healthiest counties

Of the 50 least risky counties in ATTOM’s third quarter analysis, seven were in Wisconsin, five were in Tennessee, and four each were in Montana, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

The least risky counties were Berkeley County, WV; Chittenden County, VT; Erie County, NY; Olmsted County, MN; and Albany County, NY. All five had unemployment rates at or below 4 percent and a foreclosure rate of, at most, one in every 2,624 properties.

High foreclosure rates in Florida, unemployment rates in California

In the third quarter of 2025, monthly expenses for a nationally median priced home accounted for 33.3 percent of the typical American’s wages. But in some counties, those homeownership costs exceeded 100 percent of typical wages.

Kings County, NY was the least affordable in the analysis, with median home expenses equaling 113 percent of typical wages. It was followed by Santa Cruz County, CA (111.8 percent of typical wages); Marin County, CA (101.3 percent of typical wages); Monterey County, CA (96.8 percent of typical wages); and Maui County, HI (94 percent of typical wages).

Nationally, 2.8 percent of homes were seriously underwater in the third quarter, meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the properties were at least 25 percent more than the properties’ estimated market values.

Louisiana continues to be the center of many of the worst underwater rates in the nation. Of the 50 counties in ATTOM’s analysis with the highest seriously underwater rates, 14 were in Louisiana, followed by six in Illinois, five in Pennsylvania, and four in Arkansas.

The counties with the highest seriously underwater rates were Calcasieu Parish, LA (17.1 percent of homes with loans); Rapides Parish, LA (15.4 percent); Ouachita Parish, LA (13.6 percent); East Baton Rouge Parish, LA (13.1 percent); and Tangipahoa Parish, LA (13.1 percent).

One out of every 1,402 homes nationwide were in foreclosure in the third quarter, but foreclosures were far more prevalent in the riskiest counties.

Of the 50 counties in ATTOM’s analysis with the highest prevalence of foreclosures, 16 were in Florida, followed by five in New Jersey and four each in California and South Carolina.

The counties with the worst foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC (one in every 365 homes with a foreclosure filing); Kaufman County, TX (one in every 400 homes); Osceola County, FL (one in every 449 homes); Cuyahoga County, OH (one in every 463 homes); and Johnson County, TX (one in every 463 homes).

The national unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Imperial County, CA (20.3 percent); Yuma County, AZ (16 percent); Tulare County, CA (11.3 percent); Merced County, CA (10.4 percent); and Kings County, CA (9.8 percent).

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/home-sales-prices/q3-2025-housing-impact-report/

NYC leads the US in office-to-residential conversions, thousands of homes to flood 1 famous nabe

 One major Manhattan neighborhood’s skyline is being reused — rather than reshaped — by an office-to-residential conversion boom.

Adaptive reuse is reaching record highs across the country, but nowhere is the trend more pronounced than in New York City. Midtown, in particular, is expecting a windfall from the trend.

Just as redevelopment gave the buttoned-up Financial District a more family-friendly feel, all eyes are on whether Midtown’s conversion trend will add new energy — and desirability — to the area’s 9-to-5 and touristy reputation.

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Roughly half of the city’s upcoming conversions are located in Midtown.Christopher Sadowski

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Weaker demand and declining property values opened the door for more office conversions.Getty Images

A report by RentCafe singled out the Big Apple as the country’s No. 1 hotspot for upcoming office-to-residential conversions.

The pipeline of adaptive-reuse projects in the city includes nearly 11,000 apartments in various stages of development; roughly 9,000 of them are coming from former office buildings.

Weak demand and declining prices for aging office buildings made these vacant towers attractive to residential developers. Subsequent zoning changes and new housing incentives helped make the conversion boom possible. 

There were 1.4 million square feet of conversion projects underway or planned in Manhattan as of September, Bloomberg reported, citing CBRE. That’s the equivalent of more than four Empire State buildings.

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The old Pfizer headquarters located at 219 and 235 42nd St. (pictured) are being converted to residences.Seth Gottfried

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A residential conversion of 5 Times Square was announced this year.Google Maps

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The conversion of 750 Third Ave. is expected to yield 600 apartments.Imogen Brown

The expected injection of new housing thanks to this “conversion mania” is welcome news to the many New Yorkers who have contended with record-high rents over the past few years.

About half of the city’s upcoming conversions are located in Midtown — Manhattan’s least residential area. A housing boost here wouldn’t just add supply — it could reduce strain on the city’s public transit system as daily commuters become full-time residents.

The area’s expected windfall of converted housing includes buzzy projects like the redevelopment of the former Pfizer headquarters on East 42nd Street.

The two office towers near Grand Central — currently the largest office conversion in the US — are expected to yield roughly 1,600 new rentals when they open in 2026.

At 5 Times Square, along Midtown’s busiest corridor, the former home of Ernst & Young is slated for 1,250 new homes. These office-to-residential conversions have found popularity among two oft-opposing groups — ambitious residential developers and housing advocates.

When news of the 5 Times Square conversion was shared on the Reddit thread r/nyc earlier this year, the top comment declared: “This is good news, now do it 100 more times!”

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Mayor Eric Adams touring the 160 Water St. conversion in 2023.G.N.Miller/NYPost

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The footprint of apartments like this one once hosted office cubles.Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

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Pearl House at 160 Water St. is the city’s largest post-pandemic office conversion project. Tamara Beckwith

The 35-story tower at 750 Third Ave. in Midtown East is turning into more than 600 apartments, and even the former Archdiocese of New York at 1011 First Ave. is getting a residential revamp. 

This wealth of upcoming units is in contrast to 2024, when just 588 new apartments were added to the borough via conversion. 

That was thanks to the transformation of the 1970s Fidi office tower at 160 Water St., which was rechristened Pearl House earlier this year when it became the city’s largest post-pandemic office conversion project. 

So far, a majority of the city’s splashiest conversions have been concentrated in the lower Financial District, with developments like 25 Water St., the former JPMorgan Chase Building, and 55 Broad St., which opened its doors in 2024.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/24/real-estate/nyc-leads-the-nation-in-office-to-residential-conversions/

Mets Owner Steve Cohen Gets Green Light for Casino in Queens

 Queens just got dealt a winning hand.

The state Gaming Facility Location Board has greenlit all three remaining applicants for full-scale downstate casino licenses: Resorts World New York City in South Ozone Park, Hard Rock Metropolitan Park at Citi Field and Bally’s Bronx, just over the Whitestone Bridge. 

“The board has determined that awarding all three licenses best advances the state’s long-term economic, fiscal and community objectives,” said Chair Vicki Been at the board’s Dec. 1 meeting at the CUNY Graduate Center in Manhattan.

The three applicants will get licenses pending final approval by the state Gaming Commission by Dec. 31. 

At a press conference following the meeting, Been said approval is “not a rubber stamp” and that the Gaming Commission will still conduct a thorough review before its final decision.

The licensees each will have to pay the state a $500 million fee, as well as pledge $500 million in capital investment.

RWNYC’s proposed expansion, at its existing facility at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd., includes a $5.5 billion physical investment in the 72-acre Aqueduct site, adding a 500,000-square-foot gaming floor; 2,000 hotel rooms; a 7,000-seat multipurpose entertainment venue; more than 7,000 parking spaces, a majority of which will be covered; and more than 12 acres of new public green space. Resorts World plans to start offering live table games as soon as March 30, 2026.

For the first phase of the casino, expected to open toward the end of March next year, RWNYC will immediately begin hiring and training up to 2,000 employees, it said in a press release. RWNYC’s proposed $2 billion community benefits package also includes a commitment to build up to 50,000 units of workforce housing across the city; the Resorts World Innovation Campus, featuring a sports and media complex shaped by Queens native and former NBA star Kenny “The Jet” Smith; a community investment fund; and a $100 million infrastructure improvement package. 

“Resorts World New York City’s journey to this historic moment represents more than 15 years of work to generate jobs, revenue, and opportunities for our neighbors,” said Robert DeSalvio, President of Genting Americas East, the parent company of RWNYC.

DeSalvio continued, “Resorts World New York City’s $7.5 billion proposal is the only bid that can expand operations in just 90 days, generating billions in new revenue for mass transit and public education over the next four years. We are thankful the Gaming Facility Location Board recognized the tremendous economic impact we will have for New York State.” 

Metropolitan Park, a proposed $8.1 billion investment and partnership between New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock International, would transform 50 acres of Citi Field parking lots into a sports and entertainment destination. The project features a Hard Rock Hotel with a casino, sportsbook, restaurants, bars and state-of-the art live music venue as well as a Taste of Queens Food Hall. 

Metropolitan Park would create 25 acres of public green space, generate 23,000 union jobs and deliver more than $1 billion in community benefits, including new infrastructure improvements and a completely revamped, ADA-accessible 7-line train station.

“After years of community engagement and support, Metropolitan Park is one step closer to becoming a reality,” said project spokesperson Karl Rickett in a statement. “Following a fair, transparent and rigorous process, The Gaming Facility Location Board has validated the positive economic impact this project will have with billions of dollars in tax revenue, 23,000 union jobs, and over $1 billion in community benefits. We look forward to the Gaming Commission’s review.”

“There is no safer bet in our city than Queens and its unparalleled promise. The most diverse county in the United States is quickly becoming its most economically innovative and transformative — cemented by today’s recommendation to connect tens of thousands of Queens families to good-paying union jobs and millions of residents and tourists alike to world-class entertainment,” said Borough President Donovan Richards in a statement.

“Since the very start of this casino licensing process, both Resorts World and Metropolitan Park have held winning hands, with each putting forth unrivaled community benefits packages to uplift our families and clear-eyed workforce development plans that will generate billions of dollars in wages and tax revenue. Together, they embody our borough’s unrivaled potential as a true live, work and play community.”

He said he is glad to have supported both projects, and added, “There is no doubt that Queens is truly the future.” 

State Sen. John Liu (D-Bayside) said, “Today’s meeting of the state’s Gaming Facility Location Board caps off a 13-year process which began with New York’s voters approving a constitutional amendment authorizing 4 upstate and 3 downstate casinos. No doubt voters understood the harms caused by gambling and casinos, like harms caused by other state-licensed activities. Ultimately, the decisions in the voter referendum back then through today’s meeting weighed costs versus benefits, specifically those of casinos and gambling versus mass transit, public schools, well-paying jobs, and parks and other infrastructure.”

Across the East River, as part of the Trump Organization’s sale of its remaining interest in the site to Bally’s, formerly Trump Links golf course, the casino company promised to pay the Trump Organization $115 million should it win a casino license, according to The New York Times. 

Gov. Hochul said in a statement, “From the moment that three downstate casino licenses were authorized in the 2022 State Budget, I have been clear: any approved project must provide real benefits to its community and have sustainable economic plans. I am grateful to Chair Been and the Gaming Facility Location Board for their careful review of the applications according to these high standards.”

She continued, “The three projects approved today promise to unlock billions in funding for the MTA and create tens of thousands of jobs. It is critical that they keep those promises. I look forward to the Gaming Commission’s review of the Board’s recommendations in the weeks ahead.” 

https://www.qchron.com/editions/queenswide/panel-all-in-on-three-downstate-casinos/article_072139b8-3bef-432d-b92a-63a63a38fe55.html