Wisconsin counties lead with some of the least at-risk housing markets; Ongoing market pressures seen in parts of California, Louisiana, and Florida
ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2025.
The report shows that 16 of the 50 highest risk markets were in California, followed by nine in New Jersey, four in Florida, and three each in Arizona and Texas. Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosure rates, and county unemployment rates.
The third quarter saw the national median home price rise to a record high of $375,00 and affordability continued to be a primary concern in many parts of the country.
Covering the purchase and monthly costs of a median priced home would have required at least half of the typical county resident’s annual wages in 19.8 percent (115) of the 580 counties with sufficient data to analyze. And in 63.1 percent (366) of the counties, a median priced home required at least a third of the typical resident’s wages.
“A lot of attention has, deservedly, gone to affordability concerns stemming from the rising price of homes,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “But what really separated the riskiest markets in our third quarter assessment were their high rates of foreclosures and unemployment.”
“If a community is losing jobs, those homeowners will find it harder to pay their monthly mortgage bills,” he added. “That means more foreclosures, which can hurt the broader local housing market.”
Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.
The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 580 counties around the United States, excluding Connecticut and Colorado, with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2025. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.
California counties top riskiest list
The counties with the riskiest housing markets in ATTOM’s analysis were Butte County, CA; Humboldt County, CA; Charlotte County, FL; Shasta County, CA; and El Dorado County, CA.
The five counties all had unemployment rates at or above 5.1 percent and at least one foreclosure for every 806 homes.
Wisconsin leads with healthiest counties
Of the 50 least risky counties in ATTOM’s third quarter analysis, seven were in Wisconsin, five were in Tennessee, and four each were in Montana, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
The least risky counties were Berkeley County, WV; Chittenden County, VT; Erie County, NY; Olmsted County, MN; and Albany County, NY. All five had unemployment rates at or below 4 percent and a foreclosure rate of, at most, one in every 2,624 properties.
High foreclosure rates in Florida, unemployment rates in California
In the third quarter of 2025, monthly expenses for a nationally median priced home accounted for 33.3 percent of the typical American’s wages. But in some counties, those homeownership costs exceeded 100 percent of typical wages.
Kings County, NY was the least affordable in the analysis, with median home expenses equaling 113 percent of typical wages. It was followed by Santa Cruz County, CA (111.8 percent of typical wages); Marin County, CA (101.3 percent of typical wages); Monterey County, CA (96.8 percent of typical wages); and Maui County, HI (94 percent of typical wages).
Nationally, 2.8 percent of homes were seriously underwater in the third quarter, meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the properties were at least 25 percent more than the properties’ estimated market values.
Louisiana continues to be the center of many of the worst underwater rates in the nation. Of the 50 counties in ATTOM’s analysis with the highest seriously underwater rates, 14 were in Louisiana, followed by six in Illinois, five in Pennsylvania, and four in Arkansas.
The counties with the highest seriously underwater rates were Calcasieu Parish, LA (17.1 percent of homes with loans); Rapides Parish, LA (15.4 percent); Ouachita Parish, LA (13.6 percent); East Baton Rouge Parish, LA (13.1 percent); and Tangipahoa Parish, LA (13.1 percent).
One out of every 1,402 homes nationwide were in foreclosure in the third quarter, but foreclosures were far more prevalent in the riskiest counties.
Of the 50 counties in ATTOM’s analysis with the highest prevalence of foreclosures, 16 were in Florida, followed by five in New Jersey and four each in California and South Carolina.
The counties with the worst foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC (one in every 365 homes with a foreclosure filing); Kaufman County, TX (one in every 400 homes); Osceola County, FL (one in every 449 homes); Cuyahoga County, OH (one in every 463 homes); and Johnson County, TX (one in every 463 homes).
The national unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Imperial County, CA (20.3 percent); Yuma County, AZ (16 percent); Tulare County, CA (11.3 percent); Merced County, CA (10.4 percent); and Kings County, CA (9.8 percent).
https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/home-sales-prices/q3-2025-housing-impact-report/
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